Polymarket Market
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Live
- Probability
- 7%
- Volume
- $3.62M
- Liquidity
- $70.8K
- Ends
- Jan 1, 2027
- Best bid
- 6.9%
- Best ask
- 7%
- Spread
- 0.1%
- Last trade
- 7%
Outcomes
Market outcomes
Live pricing
Pricing and liquidity
Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.
- Best bid
- 0.1%
- Best ask
- 99.9%
- Midpoint
- 50%
- Spread
- 99.8%
- Last trade
- 93.1%
- Depth
- 2,773,209.89 / 1,837,750.43
Price history
Waiting for price history
History unavailable
Bids
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 0.1% | 2,237,182.59 |
| 0.2% | 123,269.91 |
| 0.3% | 89,672 |
| 0.4% | 26,500 |
| 0.5% | 15,640 |
| 0.6% | 81,509 |
| 0.7% | 34,008.5 |
| 0.8% | 102,008.5 |
Asks
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 99.9% | 1,132,000 |
| 99.8% | 11.21 |
| 99.7% | 200,000 |
| 99.6% | 100,000 |
| 99.5% | 50,000 |
| 98.9% | 90,000 |
| 98.8% | 50,005.11 |
| 98.7% | 48,499.99 |
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this market.
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No 93.1% 107.41 shares
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No 93.1% 6 shares
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No 93% 8 shares
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No 93% 1.07 shares
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No 93% 1.07 shares
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No 93% 1.08 shares
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No 93% 1.07 shares
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No 93% 1.07 shares
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No 93% 1.07 shares
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No 93.1% 1.07 shares
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No 93.1% 1.07 shares
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No 93.1% 1.07 shares