Polymarket Market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Live
- Probability
- 26%
- Volume
- $40.28K
- Liquidity
- $3.25K
- Ends
- Dec 31, 2026
- Best bid
- 26%
- Best ask
- 27%
- Spread
- 1%
- Last trade
- 26%
Outcomes
Market outcomes
Live pricing
Pricing and liquidity
Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.
- Best bid
- 1%
- Best ask
- 99%
- Midpoint
- 50%
- Spread
- 98%
- Last trade
- Unavailable
- Depth
- 15,580.32 / 28,520.94
Price history
Waiting for price history
History unavailable
Bids
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 1% | 9,176.38 |
| 2% | 9.93 |
| 3% | 1,723.24 |
| 4% | 11.49 |
| 6% | 2,561.62 |
| 7% | 800 |
| 8% | 200 |
| 9% | 574.41 |
Asks
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 99% | 8,032.31 |
| 98% | 20.66 |
| 97% | 6.66 |
| 96% | 6,329.5 |
| 95% | 52.7 |
| 94% | 98.85 |
| 93% | 4,916.85 |
| 90% | 900 |
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this market.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?Yes 26% 6.1 shares
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?No 73% 20 shares
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?Yes 26.6% 218.77 shares
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?Yes 45.7% 218.77 shares
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?Yes 45% 5.29 shares
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?No 66% 1.52 shares
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?No 56.4% 19.98 shares
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?No 57% 7 shares
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?No 67% 39.77 shares
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?No 68% 7 shares
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?Yes 34% 47.06 shares
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?Yes 48% 37.11 shares