Polymarket Market
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Live
- Probability
- 6.8%
- Volume
- $19.28K
- Liquidity
- $1.24K
- Ends
- Dec 31, 2026
- Best bid
- 9.2%
- Best ask
- 13.4%
- Spread
- 4.2%
- Last trade
- 6.8%
Outcomes
Market outcomes
Live pricing
Pricing and liquidity
Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.
- Best bid
- 0.1%
- Best ask
- 99.9%
- Midpoint
- 50%
- Spread
- 99.8%
- Last trade
- 91.1%
- Depth
- 77,055.9 / 39,071.4
Price history
Waiting for price history
History unavailable
Bids
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 0.1% | 70,273 |
| 0.2% | 1,332 |
| 1% | 500 |
| 1.6% | 5 |
| 2% | 10 |
| 2.1% | 5 |
| 2.5% | 10 |
| 2.6% | 5 |
Asks
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 99.9% | 96.14 |
| 99.8% | 5.42 |
| 99.7% | 10,000 |
| 99.6% | 7.2 |
| 99% | 13,125 |
| 98.9% | 11.91 |
| 98% | 6,093.75 |
| 97% | 3,437.5 |
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this market.
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?No 91.2% 199 shares
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?Yes 6.8% 90 shares
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?No 92.4% 16.1 shares
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?No 92.6% 200 shares
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?Yes 9.1% 212.25 shares
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?Yes 8.9% 25.89 shares
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?No 90.6% 104.24 shares
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?Yes 8.3% 83.66 shares
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?No 90.3% 1.5 shares
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?Yes 9.5% 2.36 shares
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?Yes 9.5% 12.27 shares
- Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?Yes 9.6% 17.65 shares