Polymarket Market
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Live
- Probability
- 25%
- Volume
- $2.88M
- Liquidity
- $63.06K
- Ends
- Dec 31, 2026
- Best bid
- 23%
- Best ask
- 25%
- Spread
- 2%
- Last trade
- 25%
Outcomes
Market outcomes
Live pricing
Pricing and liquidity
Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.
- Best bid
- 1%
- Best ask
- 99%
- Midpoint
- 50%
- Spread
- 98%
- Last trade
- 23%
- Depth
- 277,998.47 / 231,451.51
Price history
Waiting for price history
History unavailable
Bids
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 1% | 55,326.15 |
| 2% | 82,513.2 |
| 3% | 31,495 |
| 4% | 9,817.19 |
| 5% | 12,140.28 |
| 6% | 8,714.35 |
| 7% | 14,912.88 |
| 8% | 7,324.84 |
Asks
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 99% | 47,653.92 |
| 98% | 11,727 |
| 97% | 2,098.69 |
| 96% | 22,800.05 |
| 95% | 2,360 |
| 94% | 10 |
| 93% | 10 |
| 92% | 11,834 |
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this market.
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 77% 207.79 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 77% 6.49 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 75% 45.89 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 77% 6.49 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 75% 3.33 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 77% 6.49 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes 25% 50 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 77% 25.97 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 77% 2.83 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 77% 1.52 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 77% 2.6 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 77% 2.58 shares