Polymarket Market
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Live
- Probability
- 12%
- Volume
- $37.86M
- Liquidity
- $484.24K
- Ends
- Dec 31, 2026
- Best bid
- 12%
- Best ask
- 13%
- Spread
- 1%
- Last trade
- 12%
Outcomes
Market outcomes
Live pricing
Pricing and liquidity
Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.
- Best bid
- 1%
- Best ask
- 99%
- Midpoint
- 50%
- Spread
- 98%
- Last trade
- 87%
- Depth
- 4,747,648.61 / 872,241.21
Price history
Waiting for price history
History unavailable
Bids
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 1% | 2,370,123.29 |
| 2% | 264,076.3 |
| 3% | 635,578.49 |
| 4% | 108,742.27 |
| 5% | 107,715.24 |
| 6% | 122,289.94 |
| 7% | 36,544.33 |
| 8% | 109,391.58 |
Asks
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 99% | 195,290.95 |
| 98% | 17,378.08 |
| 97% | 6,503.92 |
| 96% | 1,024 |
| 95% | 18,625 |
| 94% | 1,000 |
| 93% | 8.83 |
| 92% | 2,356 |
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this market.
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 87% 0.01 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 87% 0.25 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 87% 0.25 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 88% 14.55 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 87% 1.11 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 88% 300 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 87% 0.63 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 87% 2.78 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 12% 750 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 87% 0.01 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 12% 16.86 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 87% 0.06 shares