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Polymarket Market

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Live
MarketLive pricing
Probability
7%
Volume
$217.96K
Liquidity
$34.19K
Ends
Mar 31, 2026
Best bid
6%
Best ask
7%
Spread
1%
Last trade
7%

Outcomes

Market outcomes

Yes 6.5% Current quote
No 93.5% Current quote

Live pricing

Pricing and liquidity

Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.

Best bid
1%
Best ask
99%
Midpoint
50%
Spread
98%
Last trade
7%
Depth
35,862.86 / 190,507.73

Price history

Waiting for price history

History unavailable

Bids

PriceSize
1%2,380
2%638.55
3%8,149.47
4%9,089.54
5%5,011.15
6%10,594.15

Asks

PriceSize
99%50,007.9
98%34,807.49
95%27,200
94%9.25
91%11,933.33
90%900
87%6,093.75
86%6,700

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this market.

  • Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
    No 93% 5.71 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
    No 93% 4.25 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
    Yes 7% 21 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
    No 93% 1.33 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
    No 94% 106.38 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
    No 94% 1.06 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
    Yes 6% 0.12 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
    Yes 7% 66 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
    No 93% 5.72 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
    Yes 6% 37.5 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
    No 93% 26.7 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
    No 93% 2.12 shares