Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $125.57K
- Potential payout
- $155.99K
- Potential profit
- $30.42K
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$1.74K
Polymarket Trader
scottilicious
@scottonPoly
0x000d257d2dc7616feaef4ae0f14600fdf50a758e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $540.91K
- Realized PnL
- $1.25M
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 50
- Closed positions
- 50
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.9%
- Current value
- $118.24K
- Potential payout
- $122.09K
- Potential profit
- $3.85K
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $900.51
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $86.56K
- Potential payout
- $86.78K
- Potential profit
- $216.95
- User PnL
- $12.35K
Yes position
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $542.27
- Potential payout
- $72.3K
- Potential profit
- $71.76K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$518.91
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $33.82K
- Potential payout
- $54.11K
- Potential profit
- $20.29K
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$3.96K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.05K
- Potential profit
- $35.05K
- User PnL
- -$17.52K
Yes position
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $749.8
- Potential payout
- $35.04K
- Potential profit
- $34.29K
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- -$508.18
Yes position
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.8%
- Current value
- $12.24K
- Potential payout
- $33.3K
- Potential profit
- $21.06K
- Multiplier
- 2.72x
- User PnL
- -$144.81
Yes position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.38K
- Potential profit
- $25.38K
- User PnL
- -$18.88K
Yes position
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $370.92
- Potential payout
- $23.93K
- Potential profit
- $23.56K
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$264.67
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $20.26K
- Potential payout
- $21.9K
- Potential profit
- $1.64K
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $2.96K
Yes position
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $509.56
- Potential payout
- $20.8K
- Potential profit
- $20.29K
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- -$3.49
No position
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $19.51K
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $490
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$90
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $17.5K
- Potential payout
- $17.63K
- Potential profit
- $132.25
- User PnL
- $1.48K
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $14.88K
- Potential payout
- $17.21K
- Potential profit
- $2.32K
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$82.7
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $14.94K
- Potential payout
- $16.6K
- Potential profit
- $1.66K
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $5.16K
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $15.07K
- Potential payout
- $15.18K
- Potential profit
- $113.86
- User PnL
- $2.31K
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 16.1%
- Current value
- $2.18K
- Potential payout
- $13.56K
- Potential profit
- $11.38K
- Multiplier
- 6.23x
- User PnL
- -$264.44
No position
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $12.41K
- Potential payout
- $12.44K
- Potential profit
- $31.1
- User PnL
- $1.17K
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $12.21K
- Potential payout
- $12.34K
- Potential profit
- $129.58
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $215.11
Yes position
ICE shooter charged by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.25K
- Potential profit
- $11.25K
- User PnL
- -$3.8K
Yes position
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $4.22
- Potential payout
- $8.43K
- Potential profit
- $8.43K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.98K
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.7%
- Current value
- $6.42K
- Potential payout
- $7.24K
- Potential profit
- $817.98
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $1.41K
No position
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $6.48K
- Potential payout
- $7.13K
- Potential profit
- $641.29
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.78K
Yes position
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $112.28
- Potential payout
- $7.02K
- Potential profit
- $6.91K
- Multiplier
- 62.50x
- User PnL
- -$3.19K
No position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $6.33K
- Potential payout
- $6.4K
- Potential profit
- $70.42
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $79.47
Yes position
Kash Patel out by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Current value
- $3.15K
- Potential payout
- $6.3K
- Potential profit
- $3.15K
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.69K
No position
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $2.09K
- Potential payout
- $3.35K
- Potential profit
- $1.26K
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$184.15
Yes position
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.34K
- Potential profit
- $3.34K
- User PnL
- -$2.62K
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $233.65
- Potential payout
- $2.92K
- Potential profit
- $2.69K
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$2.19K
No position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $2.68K
- Potential payout
- $2.72K
- Potential profit
- $44.89
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $52.63
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $448.79
- Potential payout
- $2.72K
- Potential profit
- $2.27K
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$546.79
Yes position
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Current value
- $54.68
- Potential payout
- $1.68K
- Potential profit
- $1.63K
- Multiplier
- 30.77x
- User PnL
- -$7.57
No position
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $1.62K
- Potential payout
- $1.63K
- Potential profit
- $5.69
- User PnL
- $190.37
Yes position
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 29.1%
- Current value
- $412.7
- Potential payout
- $1.42K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- Multiplier
- 3.44x
- User PnL
- -$922.71
No position
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $784.39
- Potential payout
- $861.97
- Potential profit
- $77.58
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $94.82
No position
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $711.71
- Potential payout
- $713.85
- Potential profit
- $2.14
- User PnL
- $126.35
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $683.68
- Potential profit
- $683.68
- User PnL
- -$305.82
No position
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $477.5
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $22.5
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $112.5
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $427.63
- Potential profit
- $427.63
- User PnL
- -$96.4
Yes position
Will Sinners win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $407.23
- Potential profit
- $407.23
- User PnL
- -$42.87
Yes position
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.2%
- Current value
- $267.16
- Potential payout
- $299.67
- Potential profit
- $32.51
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $66.38
Yes position
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05?
Ends Aug 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $246.04
- Potential payout
- $274.91
- Potential profit
- $28.87
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $19.22
No position
Will Nithya Raman win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $228.23
- Potential payout
- $231
- Potential profit
- $2.77
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $8.78
No position
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $198.3
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $1.7
- User PnL
- $34.3
No position
Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $195.78
- Potential payout
- $195.88
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- User PnL
- $12.48
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $88.3
- Potential payout
- $112.49
- Potential profit
- $24.19
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $16.31
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $33.54
- Potential payout
- $91.9
- Potential profit
- $58.36
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$15.16
No position
Will Spencer Pratt win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $64.66
- Potential payout
- $64.69
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $14.36
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $6.76
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $1.24
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.11K
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.05K
No position
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.64K
No position
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.55K
Yes position
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.42K
Yes position
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.68K
No position
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.17K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.81K
No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.41K
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.49K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.82K
No position
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33K
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.62K
No position
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.61K
No position
Will Kanye launch a coin in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.51K
No position
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.74K
No position
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.55K
Yes position
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.41K
No position
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.25K
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.33K
No position
Karen Bass out as Mayor of LA before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.88K
No position
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential election?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.27K
No position
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.93K
No position
Is $DJT real?
Ends Jun 21, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.52K
No position
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.54K
No position
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway?
Ends Sep 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.03K
No position
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated for his second term as President of the USA on Inauguration Day, January 20th, 2021?
Ends Feb 1, 2021- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.97K
No position
Will either FL, MN, NH, or TX flip in 2024?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.31K
No position
Did Barron Trump launch $DJT?
Ends Jun 23, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.3K
No position
Biden drops out by July 4?
Ends Jul 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.17K
Yes position
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.41K
No position
Biden wins the Popular Vote?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.88K
Yes position
Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.59K
Yes position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.57K
No position
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.35K
Yes position
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.34K
No position
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.23K
No position
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.1K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.93K
Yes position
Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.87K
No position
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.85K
Yes position
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.4K
Yes position
Andrew Tate arrested in August?
Ends Aug 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.37K
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.3K
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.19K
No position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.88K
Yes position
Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.87K
Yes position
Will Nigel Farage win election to UK parliament?
Ends Jul 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.83K
No position
Will Andrew Cuomo drop out?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.73K
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.73K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 96.8% 3,819.84 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 91.9% 3,474.5 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 96.6% 220 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?No 98.1% 7,379.73 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes 80.2% 3,000 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?No 96.8% 1,668.52 shares
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?Yes 98.9% 8,185.01 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99.7% 17,935.67 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99.7% 10,000 shares
- Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?Yes 98% 3,307.21 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99.7% 20,000 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes 99.5% 6,195 shares