Polymarket Trader

0x004F618b49d7f38300195971Df1d34Ead09C9612-1724283938888

0x004f618b49d7f38300195971df1d34ead09c9612

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $232.93
Realized PnL: $1.75K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.7K
Potential profit: $6.7K
User PnL: -$6.7

Yes position

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.42K
Potential profit: $1.42K
User PnL: -$269.64

Yes position

Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?

Ends Jan 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $661.89
Potential profit: $661.89
User PnL: -$52.95

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.8
Potential payout: $530.73
Potential profit: $529.93
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$241.04

Yes position

China coup attempt in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$9.5

Eagles position

49ers vs. Eagles

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $471.63
Potential profit: $471.63
User PnL: -$331.96

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $416.67
Potential profit: $416.67
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Bird flu pandemic before August 2025?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $411.83
Potential profit: $411.83
User PnL: -$49.42

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $411.11
Potential profit: $411.11
User PnL: -$37

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $168.81
Potential payout: $371
Potential profit: $202.2
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: -$50.08

Yes position

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $330
Potential profit: $330
User PnL: -$9.9

Tate position

Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor

Ends Dec 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $309.75
Potential profit: $309.75
User PnL: -$247.11

Yes position

US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $308.47
Potential profit: $308.47
User PnL: -$51.9

Ravens position

Patriots vs. Ravens

Ends Dec 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$195

Yes position

Megaquake by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $286.01
Potential profit: $286.01
User PnL: -$50.76

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $267.86
Potential profit: $267.86
User PnL: -$75

Yes position

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 8.1%
Current value: $20.67
Potential payout: $256.77
Potential profit: $236.1
Multiplier: 12.42x
User PnL: -$9.35

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $255.75
Potential profit: $255.75
User PnL: -$125

Hooker position

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Nov 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$37.5

Yes position

Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $249
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$10.12

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.4%
Current value: $10.73
Potential payout: $243.82
Potential profit: $233.09
Multiplier: 22.73x
User PnL: -$18.17

Rangers position

Rangers vs. Bruins

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $220
Potential profit: $220
User PnL: -$101.2

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $30.63
Potential payout: $218.76
Potential profit: $188.13
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$21.87

Yes position

Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.31
Potential payout: $205.1
Potential profit: $204.79
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$12.73

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $184.87

Yes position

Megaquake in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $152.49

Packers position

Packers vs. Lions

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $111.08

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $110.68

Yes position

Israel military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.75

Lions position

Cowboys vs. Lions

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $91.94

Drew Dober position

UFC 326: Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.17

Navy position

Army vs. Navy

Ends Dec 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.21

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.97

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $61.95

Georgia position

Texas vs. Georgia

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51

Cortes-Acosta position

UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Ravens position

Ravens vs. Browns

Ends Nov 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Dodgers position

Dodgers vs. Blue Jays

Ends Nov 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.16

Bears position

Steelers vs. Bears

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.02

Kai Kamaka III position

UFC Fight Night: Kai Kamaka III vs. Dakota Hope (Lightweight, Prelims)

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.14

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.46

Bills position

Buccaneers vs. Bills

Ends Nov 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42

Bills position

Bills vs. Browns

Ends Dec 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.96

Bills position

Bengals vs. Bills

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.85

Cowboys position

Chiefs vs. Cowboys

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.79

Davey Grant position

UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.4

Thunder position

Spurs vs. Thunder

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.99

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5

Over 80% 119.78 shares
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5

Over 50% 119.78 shares
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev 62% 15.03 shares
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev 71% 70.42 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

Yes 7.8% 50 shares
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Ciryl Gane 50% 50 shares
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?

Yes 21.1% 118.76 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

Yes 12.9% 193.82 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?

No 34% 143.65 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

No 96.5% 130.64 shares
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims)

Ding Meng 54% 47 shares
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims)

Zhu Kangjie 51% 50 shares