Polymarket Trader

manuelarias

0x0086cb69cb8540e5561ba1968718e3b305631b8c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $17.24K
Realized PnL: $1.04K
Win rate: 33.3%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 12
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $8K
Potential payout: $14.16K
Potential profit: $6.16K
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $1.13K

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $8.61K
Potential payout: $9.84K
Potential profit: $1.23K
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $1.47K

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $328.99
Potential payout: $1.99K
Potential profit: $1.66K
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$24.55

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $105.91
Potential payout: $1.96K
Potential profit: $1.86K
Multiplier: 18.52x
User PnL: -$194.09

Yes position

Will voter turnout be 56-60% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 35%
Current value: $191.39
Potential payout: $546.83
Potential profit: $355.44
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: -$9.61

No position

Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.39
Potential profit: $48.39
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.81
Potential profit: $16.81
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $9.92
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $6.75
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.2
Potential profit: $8.2
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.55
Potential profit: $4.55
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.72
Potential profit: $1.72
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02K

Yes position

Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.54

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.64

Yes position

Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.54

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.18

Canada position

Spread: Canada (-1.5)

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.96

Yes position

Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$28.02

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 73% 10.96 shares
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?

Yes 20% 25 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?

Yes 51.5% 1,942.2 shares
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 41% 24.39 shares
Will England win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 58% 17.24 shares
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 8% 22.72 shares
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 22% 22.73 shares
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?

No 31% 16.13 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?

Yes 65.9% 3,168.89 shares
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?

Yes 51% 3,753.96 shares
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?

No 31% 32.26 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 99.9% 59.7 shares