Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.9%
- Current value
- $359.89
- Potential payout
- $2.6K
- Potential profit
- $2.24K
- Multiplier
- 7.22x
- User PnL
- -$90.11
Polymarket Trader
kielbasa
0x009a692ea2d5a94be2cb175841d8db2fa6982b8e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.23K
- Realized PnL
- $4.56K
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.4%
- Current value
- $482.61
- Potential payout
- $2.49K
- Potential profit
- $2.01K
- Multiplier
- 5.17x
- User PnL
- $52.62
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.42K
- Potential profit
- $2.42K
- User PnL
- -$147
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $81
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.92K
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- $31
Yes position
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $63
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.94K
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- $13
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $3.25
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $1.3K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$25.75
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.9%
- Current value
- $75.48
- Potential payout
- $961.54
- Potential profit
- $886.06
- Multiplier
- 12.74x
- User PnL
- -$24.52
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.3%
- Current value
- $90.77
- Potential payout
- $595.24
- Potential profit
- $504.46
- Multiplier
- 6.56x
- User PnL
- $40.77
Yes position
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.6%
- Current value
- $15.07
- Potential payout
- $119.64
- Potential profit
- $104.57
- Multiplier
- 7.94x
- User PnL
- -$4.93
Yes position
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $55.05
- Potential payout
- $101
- Potential profit
- $45.96
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $2.52
Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $6.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $43.25
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$13.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $960.8
No position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $539.97
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $511.58
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $408.12
No position
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $403.76
No position
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $379.86
No position
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $300
No position
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $212
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $172.3
Yes position
Will Poland win on 2026-03-26?
Ends Mar 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $100
Yes position
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11?
Ends Jan 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.8
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.38
No position
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.86
Yes position
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.15
No position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.22
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $59.7
Yes position
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.08
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.83
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.12
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.18
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4
No position
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4
Yes position
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 2.5% 2,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 0.2% 1,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 3.3% 303.03 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 4.1% 365.85 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 14.4% 173.61 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 14.3% 349.65 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 15.7% 127.39 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 24.4% 102.46 shares
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?Yes 19% 951.17 shares
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?Yes 8% 200 shares
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Yes 48% 400 shares
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?Yes 11% 600 shares