0x00cDEa4d807710807cdBC54AD34cFAFCd992c0aE-1782010404295

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $11.93
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $3.07
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?

Implied probability: 69%
Current value: $10.35
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $4.65
Multiplier: 1.45x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $7.43
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $7.58
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: -$0.62

Yes position

Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $9.83
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $5.18
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $0.22

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $13.28
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $1.72
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 55%
Current value: $8.25
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $6.75
Multiplier: 1.82x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 56%
Current value: $8.4
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $6.6
Multiplier: 1.79x
User PnL: -$1.8

No position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $8.7
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $6.3
Multiplier: 1.72x
User PnL: -$2.6

No position

Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $6.98
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $8.03
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: $0.22

Yes position

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $7.88
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $7.13
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 78%
Current value: $11.7
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $3.3
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $0.3

No position

Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $10.27
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $4.72
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $0.37

No position

Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $10.42
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $4.58
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$0.58

Yes position

Megaquake by July 31?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $1.42
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $13.57
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $4.12
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $10.87
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: -$2.77

No position

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $2.17
Potential payout: $14.99
Potential profit: $12.82
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $4.57
Potential payout: $14.98
Potential profit: $10.41
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$4.27

No position

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?

Ends Jul 24, 2026

Implied probability: 46%
Current value: $6.67
Potential payout: $14.5
Potential profit: $7.83
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: -$0.29

No position

Trump declares election interference national emergency?

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $9.64
Potential payout: $14.07
Potential profit: $4.43
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $0.83

No position

Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $11.32
Potential payout: $13.81
Potential profit: $2.49
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $0.49

Yes position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $3.83
Potential payout: $13
Potential profit: $9.16
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$1.81

No position

Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends Aug 11, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $7.18
Potential payout: $12.72
Potential profit: $5.53
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $0.19

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Over $15M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35

Yes position

Over $35M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 49.1%
Multiplier: 2.04x
User PnL: $1.92

No position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?

Implied probability: 68.5%
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $1.75

No position

Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $1.75

No position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 72.5%
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.4

Yes position

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: $1.35

Yes position

Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?

Implied probability: 89%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.1

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?

Implied probability: 96.6%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $1.05

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1

No position

Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 66%
Multiplier: 1.52x
User PnL: $0.95

No position

Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 74.5%
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $0.9

No position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 80.3%
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $0.86

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $0.85

No position

Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $0.8

No position

Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 34%
Multiplier: 2.94x
User PnL: $0.75

No position

Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $0.7

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 83.1%
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.7

Yes position

Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 53%
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: $0.65

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?

Implied probability: 70.5%
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Will the Republican Party win the CO-08 House seat?

Ends Nov 4, 2026

Implied probability: 87%
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $0.51

No position

Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 94%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 63.5%
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?