Polymarket Trader

0x0121...8ed3

0x01211381a507a738d9503cd4f442988033278ed3

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $87.99
Realized PnL: $51.02
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $2.33
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $12.68
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $0.81
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $13.2
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $1.26
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $12.74
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$0.42

Yes position

Will the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $1.47
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $12.53
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$0.21

No position

Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $11.77
Potential payout: $13
Potential profit: $1.23
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $12.29
Potential payout: $13
Potential profit: $0.71
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.32

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $1.38
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $10.62
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.06

Yes position

Will Michael B. Jordan be named People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 21.1%
Current value: $2.32
Potential payout: $11
Potential profit: $8.68
Multiplier: 4.75x
User PnL: $0.16

Yes position

Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $1.3
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $8.7
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$0.2

No position

Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $7.07
Potential payout: $9
Potential profit: $1.93
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $0.59

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $0.59
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $7.41
Multiplier: 13.51x
User PnL: -$0.58

No position

Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $3.54
Potential payout: $7
Potential profit: $3.47
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$2.48

No position

Will James Talarico be TIME Person of the Year 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $6.23
Potential payout: $7
Potential profit: $0.77
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.14

No position

Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $5.85
Potential payout: $7
Potential profit: $1.16
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0.11

No position

Will the US federal government take a stake in Freeport-McMoRan Inc.?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $6.16
Potential payout: $7
Potential profit: $0.84
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: -$0.07

No position

Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $6.16
Potential payout: $7
Potential profit: $0.84
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Arman Tsarukyan be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $0.81
Potential payout: $6.01
Potential profit: $5.2
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.21

No position

Will Umar Nurmagomedov be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $5.43
Potential payout: $6
Potential profit: $0.57
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 47.9%
Current value: $2.4
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.61
Multiplier: 2.09x
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Will Joshua Van be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 41%
Current value: $2.05
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.95
Multiplier: 2.44x
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 22.7%
Current value: $1.14
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $3.87
Multiplier: 4.41x
User PnL: -$1.37

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 26.3%
Current value: $1.24
Potential payout: $4.71
Potential profit: $3.47
Multiplier: 3.81x
User PnL: $0.17

Yes position

Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $1.34
Potential payout: $4
Potential profit: $2.66
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $0.34

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $3.1
Potential payout: $4
Potential profit: $0.9
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $0.14

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.14

No position

Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.6%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $2.85

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.47

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.33

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.04

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2

Yes position

Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.3%
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $1.98

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.95

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.95

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.8

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.74

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.74

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.73

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.72

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.66

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.65

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.64

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.61

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.6

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET

Ends Jun 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET

Up 96% 5.21 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET

Up 96% 5.16 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

Up 99% 5.32 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

Up 91% 5.32 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

Up 99% 5.16 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

Up 91% 5.16 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - July 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET

Up 96% 0.82 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - July 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

Up 96% 5.16 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Up 96% 5.16 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - July 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

Up 90% 5.32 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Up 95% 5.27 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - July 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET

Down 95% 5.21 shares