Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $13.5K
- Potential payout
- $15K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $8.55K
Polymarket Trader
BwTrump
0x01d17b8f5b8559b7577e3cd6b059c72b4e7d12a4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $21.58K
- Realized PnL
- $116.62K
- Win rate
- 58.3%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.46K
- Potential profit
- $12.46K
- User PnL
- -$399.99
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?
Ends Sep 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $8.08K
- Potential payout
- $9.45K
- Potential profit
- $1.37K
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $4.98K
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.23K
- Potential profit
- $4.23K
- User PnL
- -$634.92
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43.37
- Potential profit
- $43.37
- User PnL
- -$11.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $27.36K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.87K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.72K
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.36K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Multiplier
- 17.54x
- User PnL
- $9.94K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.53K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.78K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.69K
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.18K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $155.95
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $127.84
Yes position
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.12
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.65
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$4.85
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.06
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$16.42
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$18.57
Yes position
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$21.21
Yes position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$28.07
Yes position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$29.25
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?
Ends Feb 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$39.52
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 16?
Ends Dec 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$41.2
Yes position
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$48.25
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?Yes 1.5% 36.09 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 19% 4,999.99 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?Yes 10.1% 3,781.96 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 21.4% 1,889.56 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Yes 11% 8,603.51 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?Yes 26.4% 3,781.97 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?Yes 24.7% 4,051.23 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?Yes 48% 310.63 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes 2.5% 5,804.5 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Yes 20% 53.86 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes 4.6% 790.12 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Yes 26% 865.11 shares