Yes position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $81.35
- Potential payout
- $130.16
- Potential profit
- $48.81
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$24.72
Polymarket Trader
FermatsLastFruit
0x01de00486455b126bc2406a5b1b8d8625e80a558
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $81.35
- Realized PnL
- $6.92K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 1
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.16K
No position
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $862.66
No position
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $705.04
Yes position
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $621.29
No position
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $617.94
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $451.91
No position
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1490?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $450.84
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $336.25
No position
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $324.43
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.8%
- Multiplier
- 4.81x
- User PnL
- $197.85
Yes position
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $188.51
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $168.82
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $146.95
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $135.02
No position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $106.48
No position
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1460?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98
No position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $82.61
No position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.78
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.24
No position
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1520?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.62
No position
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1510?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.65
No position
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.4%
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $35.98
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- $29.12
Yes position
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 57%
- Multiplier
- 1.75x
- User PnL
- $18.1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480?No 94.3% 239.6 shares
- Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440?No 91% 324.49 shares
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?Yes 74.4% 185.04 shares
- Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?Yes 85% 258 shares
- Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480?No 88.8% 414.43 shares
- Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440?No 91.7% 735.51 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?Yes 75.2% 48 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 87% 2.97 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?Yes 6% 1,027.01 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 5.1% 1,843.66 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?Yes 71.1% 1,126.6 shares
- Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?No 49% 517.02 shares