Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $9.12
- Potential payout
- $588.68
- Potential profit
- $579.55
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$18.87
Polymarket Trader
User-Name18
0x02024d012ff2366b65e4c6941f5a7bcdb11055b0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $352.1
- Realized PnL
- $1.16K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $467.74
- Potential profit
- $467.74
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $154.7
- Potential profit
- $154.7
- User PnL
- -$80
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $106.34
- Potential payout
- $140.85
- Potential profit
- $34.51
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $6.34
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $102.84
- Potential payout
- $113.64
- Potential profit
- $10.8
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $2.84
No position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.3%
- Current value
- $92.26
- Potential payout
- $108.23
- Potential profit
- $15.96
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$7.74
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $102.54
- Potential profit
- $102.54
- User PnL
- -$14.35
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $1.12
- Potential payout
- $97.62
- Potential profit
- $96.5
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$16.88
Yes position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $94.34
- Potential profit
- $94.34
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $89.81
- Potential profit
- $89.81
- User PnL
- -$14.37
Yes position
Will England win on 2026-06-23?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $84.34
- Potential profit
- $84.34
- User PnL
- -$70
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $4.17
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $51.39
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$15.83
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $53.28
- Potential profit
- $53.28
- User PnL
- -$9.59
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $47.95
- Potential profit
- $47.95
- User PnL
- -$8.63
Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43.82
- Potential profit
- $43.82
- User PnL
- -$24
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $29.71
- Potential payout
- $40.98
- Potential profit
- $11.27
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $4.71
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $6.25
- Potential payout
- $40.32
- Potential profit
- $34.07
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$18.75
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.28
- Potential payout
- $40.3
- Potential profit
- $40.01
- Multiplier
- 142.86x
- User PnL
- -$0.72
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38.46
- Potential profit
- $38.46
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $36.73
- Potential profit
- $36.73
- User PnL
- -$18
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $36.6
- Potential profit
- $36.6
- User PnL
- -$18
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
Ends Apr 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $36.08
- Potential profit
- $36.08
- User PnL
- -$8.66
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.38
- Potential profit
- $32.38
- User PnL
- -$9.65
Yes position
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $31.25
- User PnL
- -$15
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.81
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $148.89
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.13
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.02
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 1PM ET
Ends Jan 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.97
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.62
No position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 23, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.32
No position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $34.15
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 4, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.27
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.22
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $27.82
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 8AM ET
Ends Jan 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.74
No position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 20, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.61
Yes position
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.26
Yes position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.84
No position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 26, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.45
No position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.73
Yes position
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.76
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.61
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.59
Yes position
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.59
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.51
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Yes 20% 15 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes 61% 40.98 shares
- Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?Yes 38% 13.16 shares
- Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?Yes 52% 19.23 shares
- Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?Yes 54% 9.26 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ETUp 50% 9.8 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ETUp 51% 9.8 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ETDown 13% 15.38 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ETUp 84% 19.73 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ETUp 77% 6.49 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ETUp 76% 6.58 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ETUp 75% 6.67 shares