Y
Yes position
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $4.3
- Potential payout
- $88.67
- Potential profit
- $84.37
- Multiplier
- 20.62x
- User PnL
- -$5.65
Polymarket Trader
ConsensusOfCredibleReporting
0x0275ac8f6793cc3ffe90dc1095330e240622b936
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $40.73
- Realized PnL
- $618.11
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 6% and 9%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Current value
- $3
- Potential payout
- $78
- Potential profit
- $75
- Multiplier
- 25.97x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
No position
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.1B?
Ends Jul 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.2%
- Current value
- $4.87
- Potential payout
- $59.8
- Potential profit
- $54.93
- Multiplier
- 12.27x
- User PnL
- $1.88
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $0.58
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $49.43
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$2.43
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% and 6%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $0.5
- Potential payout
- $45
- Potential profit
- $44.51
- Multiplier
- 90.91x
- User PnL
- -$2.66
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Current value
- $1.28
- Potential payout
- $44.79
- Potential profit
- $43.51
- Multiplier
- 35.09x
- User PnL
- -$1.9
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $1.93
- Potential payout
- $44.43
- Potential profit
- $42.5
- Multiplier
- 23.04x
- User PnL
- -$1.18
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $43.52
- Potential profit
- $43.5
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.94
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38.19
- Potential profit
- $38.19
- User PnL
- -$3.15
No position
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.13
- Potential payout
- $37.88
- Potential profit
- $37.75
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$2.9
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.14
- Potential payout
- $31.64
- Potential profit
- $31.5
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$2.96
No position
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $3.08
- Potential payout
- $29.37
- Potential profit
- $26.29
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.15
N
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $0.72
- Potential payout
- $28.91
- Potential profit
- $28.19
- Multiplier
- 40.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.46
No position
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.58
- Potential profit
- $25.58
- User PnL
- -$7.56
Yes position
Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $3.68
- Potential payout
- $25.39
- Potential profit
- $21.71
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $0.38
Y
Yes position
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.19
- Potential payout
- $24.85
- Potential profit
- $24.66
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$3.04
N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $24.67
- Potential profit
- $24.66
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$7.14
Yes position
Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $0.28
- Potential payout
- $22.29
- Potential profit
- $22.01
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.28
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 15%
- Current value
- $3.08
- Potential payout
- $20.6
- Potential profit
- $17.52
- Multiplier
- 6.69x
- User PnL
- -$0.4
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.6%
- Current value
- $5.23
- Potential payout
- $20.48
- Potential profit
- $15.25
- Multiplier
- 3.91x
- User PnL
- $1.81
Yes position
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $1.55
- Potential payout
- $19.35
- Potential profit
- $17.8
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$1.74
Y
Yes position
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $2.52
- Potential payout
- $18.67
- Potential profit
- $16.15
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.84
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 19%
- Current value
- $3.52
- Potential payout
- $18.53
- Potential profit
- $15.01
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.11
- Potential payout
- $18.45
- Potential profit
- $18.34
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.55
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the government shutdown end November 12?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.96
Yes position
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $96.6
Yes position
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.29
Yes position
Will the government shutdown end November 14?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $28.28
No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.6
No position
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.15
Yes position
Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.2
Yes position
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 6?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.18
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9PM ET
Ends Feb 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.4%
- Multiplier
- 22.99x
- User PnL
- $17.27
Yes position
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- $16.37
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.25
Y
Yes position
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $15.64
No position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.46
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.79
Janicijevic position
Antalya: Arantxa Rus vs Selena Janicijevic
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.76
Sri Lanka position
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $11.47
Y
Yes position
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $11.01
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $10.85
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.55
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.06
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.31
Yes position
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.16
Yes position
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.88
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?Yes 15% 11.79 shares
- Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.?Yes 12% 10.39 shares
- Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election?Yes 34% 5.8 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Yes 3% 10.3 shares
- Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 27% 10 shares
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Yes 7% 10 shares
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?No 10% 8.6 shares
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No 93% 2 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?No 30.6% 6.34 shares
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?Yes 6% 18.12 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 1.9% 14.55 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 25% 6.01 shares