Polymarket Trader

rontro28

@rontro28

0x033025f6cede59b115a49446d0208586ba47eb8f

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.54K
Realized PnL: $8.88K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $235.54
Potential payout: $3.36K
Potential profit: $3.13K
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$271.93

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $209.75
Potential payout: $2.21K
Potential profit: $2K
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$129.58

Yes position

Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $20.16
Potential payout: $1.92K
Potential profit: $1.9K
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$26.75

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $25.29
Potential payout: $1.41K
Potential profit: $1.38K
Multiplier: 55.56x
User PnL: -$108.3

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $10.2
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.19K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$16.8

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $8.62
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $1.01K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$131.47

Yes position

Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?

Ends May 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $999.99
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

Ends Sep 6, 2026

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $892.32
Potential payout: $943.26
Potential profit: $50.94
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $65.96

Yes position

Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $631.89
Potential profit: $631.89
User PnL: -$145.14

Yes position

Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.34
Potential payout: $520
Potential profit: $517.66
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$8.06

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $34
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $366
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $2

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $101.99
Potential payout: $399.98
Potential profit: $297.98
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$0.6

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $348.73
Potential payout: $398.55
Potential profit: $49.82
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $6.42

No position

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $54.5
Potential payout: $286.83
Potential profit: $232.33
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: -$165.73

No position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $213.2
Potential payout: $260
Potential profit: $46.8
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $15.6

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 24.3%
Current value: $58.04
Potential payout: $238.84
Potential profit: $180.8
Multiplier: 4.12x
User PnL: -$38.21

Yes position

Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $46.91
Potential payout: $218.2
Potential profit: $171.29
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $0.72

No position

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $132.85
Potential payout: $212.56
Potential profit: $79.71
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $63.11

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 40%
Current value: $84.79
Potential payout: $211.98
Potential profit: $127.19
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: -$6.9

Yes position

Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$120

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $199.98
Potential profit: $199.98
User PnL: -$150.19

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.61
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $109.4
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$13.29

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $60.74
Potential payout: $107.52
Potential profit: $46.78
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $106.75
Potential profit: $106.75
User PnL: -$59.08

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $871.22

Up position

Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on January 28?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $862.06

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $853.78

Yes position

Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $631.03

No position

Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $513.62

No position

Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $452.45

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $414.67

Sean Strickland position

UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $405

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $339.88

Yes position

QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $321.77

Yes position

Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $299.31

Yes position

Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $291.36

No position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $263.39

Yes position

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $251.32

No position

US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $248.92

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?

Ends Feb 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $243.98

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $217.99

Yes position

Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $214.7

Yes position

Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100M and 125M views in its first 7 days?

Ends Feb 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $211.44

No position

Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?

Ends Oct 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $203.12

Yes position

Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $199.31

Yes position

Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $196.18

Yes position

Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $189.64

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $183.61

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 25.1% 50 shares
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Yes 24% 85 shares
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

No 11% 2,000 shares
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

No 10% 283.75 shares
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Yes 24% 130 shares
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Yes 23% 18.7 shares
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Yes 24% 50 shares
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Yes 24% 82.2 shares
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Yes 38% 5.18 shares
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Yes 26% 56 shares
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Yes 26% 55.5 shares
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

Yes 26% 37.5 shares