No position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.17K
- Potential profit
- $9.17K
- User PnL
- -$29.99
Polymarket Trader
Pauliemarkets
0x0377f289ff75135abde2d17904e75a782ed41833
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $360.51
- Realized PnL
- -$209.29
- Win rate
- 13.3%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 15
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.13K
- Potential profit
- $5.13K
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.9K
- Potential profit
- $3.9K
- User PnL
- -$68.96
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.54K
- Potential profit
- $3.54K
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.33K
- Potential profit
- $3.33K
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.42K
- Potential profit
- $2.42K
- User PnL
- -$121.11
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.71K
- Potential profit
- $1.71K
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the April Meeting?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.71K
- Potential profit
- $1.71K
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.39K
- Potential profit
- $1.39K
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $3.89
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$6.11
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.04K
- Potential profit
- $1.04K
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $976.29
- Potential profit
- $976.29
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Fed Rate Hike by April 2026 Meeting?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $794.54
- Potential profit
- $794.54
- User PnL
- -$9.51
Yes position
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $738.5
- Potential profit
- $738.5
- User PnL
- -$36.29
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $2.14
- Potential payout
- $714.29
- Potential profit
- $712.14
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- $2.14
Yes position
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $526.32
- Potential profit
- $526.32
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the ECB announce an increase at the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $447.38
- Potential profit
- $447.38
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $3.22
- Potential payout
- $378.9
- Potential profit
- $375.68
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$13.83
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $1.54
- Potential payout
- $342.87
- Potential profit
- $341.33
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$8.46
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.3%
- Current value
- $267.55
- Potential payout
- $333.39
- Potential profit
- $65.85
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $257.55
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.7%
- Current value
- $82.17
- Potential payout
- $333.33
- Potential profit
- $251.17
- Multiplier
- 4.06x
- User PnL
- $72.17
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $109.25
No position
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.13
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be 20 or more on April 19, 2026?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be less than 4 on April 19, 2026?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 16 and 19 on April 19, 2026?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?
Ends Dec 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$98.67
Yes position
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 7+ times at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?
Ends Dec 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Yes 3.2% 1,000 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?Yes 0.5% 666.66 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Yes 0.5% 1,000 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?Yes 1.5% 666.67 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Yes 1.4% 714.29 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Yes 2% 1,000 shares
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Yes 2% 1,000 shares
- US recession by end of 2026?Yes 21% 95.24 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.6% 3,333.33 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.9% 2,222.22 shares
- Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?Yes 11% 181.98 shares
- Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?Yes 6.4% 156.67 shares