Polymarket Trader

ProbabilityPundit

0x0386d0808be0ca56a9aad3f5956774597986e95e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $274.87
Realized PnL: $528.77
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $181.83
Potential profit: $181.83
User PnL: -$17.7

Yes position

Will "Mortal Kombat 2" be the highest grossing movie of this weekend?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100.25
Potential profit: $100.25
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$5.5

No position

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $61.88
Potential payout: $91.01
Potential profit: $29.12
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $9.88

Yes position

Will Georgia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $83.97
Potential profit: $83.97
User PnL: -$26

No position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $81.23
Potential profit: $81.23
User PnL: -$49.76

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $34.33
Potential payout: $78.93
Potential profit: $44.59
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$2.67

Yes position

Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $73.34
Potential profit: $73.34
User PnL: -$18

Yes position

Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $70
User PnL: -$9.8

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $64.13
Potential payout: $64.16
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $35.13

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 44%
Current value: $28.09
Potential payout: $63.85
Potential profit: $35.75
Multiplier: 2.27x
User PnL: -$11.91

Yes position

Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61.11
Potential profit: $61.11
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $53.39
Potential payout: $53.42
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $35.39

Saudi Arabia position

Spread: Spain (-2.5)

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.17
Potential profit: $52.17
User PnL: -$24

No position

Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.16
Potential profit: $48.16
User PnL: -$34

Thunder position

Thunder vs. Spurs

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $47.36
Potential profit: $47.36
User PnL: -$22

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 71.9%
Current value: $33.04
Potential payout: $45.96
Potential profit: $12.91
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: $8.04

No position

UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42.86
Potential profit: $42.86
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $41.37
Potential profit: $41.37
User PnL: -$10

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.39
Potential profit: $40.39
User PnL: -$12

Yes position

Will Netflix Game Controller be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $38.46
User PnL: -$5

Under position

Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36
Potential profit: $36
User PnL: -$18

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.73

Golden Knights position

Golden Knights vs. Avalanche

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.36

Yes position

Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.97

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.73

Thunder position

Thunder vs. Spurs

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.94

No position

Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.94

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.82

Yes position

Fight to Go the Distance?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.03

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.93

Golden Knights position

Avalanche vs. Golden Knights

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.47

Yes position

Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.5

Thunder position

Spurs vs. Thunder

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.99

Yes position

Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.43

Yes position

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.84

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.51

No position

Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.43

No position

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.37

Golden Knights position

Avalanche vs. Golden Knights

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.27

Golden Knights position

Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.39

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.99

No position

Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.54

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.24

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.86

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?

No 83% 30.11 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Yes 43% 27.91 shares
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?

Yes 59.2% 25.33 shares
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?

No 68% 32.35 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June?

Yes 41.2% 17.18 shares
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Yes 45% 26.78 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June?

Yes 35.2% 28.64 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?

Yes 46.4% 32.34 shares
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Yes 56% 26.79 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Yes 49% 51.02 shares
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$77 in June?

Yes 27.9% 71.61 shares
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?

Yes 54.4% 45.96 shares