Polymarket Trader

roadstar

0x0387b38bbd5d84670bf8adbbf14129653f1462d1

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.99K
Realized PnL: $60.79
Win rate: 44.4%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 18
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $865.65
Potential profit: $865.65
User PnL: -$44.24

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.8%
Current value: $484.85
Potential payout: $501.13
Potential profit: $16.29
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $9.79

Yes position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $33.35
Potential payout: $290
Potential profit: $256.65
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$45.95

No position

Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $278.72
Potential payout: $279.14
Potential profit: $0.42
User PnL: $5.16

Yes position

Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $249.88
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $0.13
User PnL: $7.13

No position

Will Goldman Sachs fail by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $219.43
Potential payout: $219.98
Potential profit: $0.55
User PnL: $2.53

No position

Will BMO fail by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $202.56
Potential payout: $207.75
Potential profit: $5.19
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.92

Yes position

Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $65.01
Potential payout: $200.02
Potential profit: $135.02
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$51.56

No position

Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $194.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $5.5
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $16.11

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98.1%
Current value: $196.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $3.9
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $3.9

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $1.73
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $148.28
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$13.28

No position

Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $133.12
Potential payout: $140.87
Potential profit: $7.75
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $6.33

No position

OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $95.84
Potential payout: $132.19
Potential profit: $36.35
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $14.44

No position

Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $104.61
Potential payout: $111.88
Potential profit: $7.27
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.86

No position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $91.53
Potential payout: $111.62
Potential profit: $20.09
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $41.93

No position

Will Databricks have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $104.95
Potential payout: $105
Potential profit: $0.05
User PnL: $4.7

No position

Fed abolished before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.6%
Current value: $98.6
Potential payout: $102.12
Potential profit: $3.52
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $2.96

No position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $65.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $34.5
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $4.5

Yes position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $52.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $47.5
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$3.5

No position

Will Scotiabank fail by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $76.54
Potential payout: $81.21
Potential profit: $4.67
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$2.13

No position

Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.7%
Current value: $70.96
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $9.04
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$4.94

No position

Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $74.88
Potential payout: $74.99
Potential profit: $0.11
User PnL: $1.99

No position

Will RBC fail by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $59.05
Potential payout: $61.86
Potential profit: $2.81
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$0.9

No position

Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $35.96
Potential payout: $56.63
Potential profit: $20.67
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $7.23

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.34

Yes position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: $26.45

No position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $24.32

Yes position

Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.68

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.15

Yes position

Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: $0.8

No position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$1.2

Yes position

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.1%
Multiplier: 9.95x
User PnL: -$1.95

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2.7

Yes position

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$13

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$24.5

Yes position

US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$38.61

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will UBS fail by end of 2026?

No 96.6% 10 shares
Will BMO fail by end of 2026?

No 96.4% 34.16 shares
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Yes 73.6% 50 shares
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?

No 83% 27 shares
Will UBS fail by end of 2026?

No 96.5% 29.14 shares
Will Wells Fargo fail by end of 2026?

No 96.5% 10 shares
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?

No 96.3% 10 shares
Will BMO fail by end of 2026?

No 96.3% 9.16 shares
Will BMO fail by end of 2026?

No 96.5% 47.31 shares
Will Deutsche Bank fail by end of 2026?

No 96.7% 29.96 shares
Will Scotiabank fail by end of 2026?

No 96.9% 81.21 shares
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

No 2.5% 300 shares