4skin1

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $0.56
Potential payout: $14.49
Potential profit: $13.93
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$0.44

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $0.7
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.3
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $4.37
Potential payout: $9.62
Potential profit: $5.24
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: -$0.63

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $4.96
Potential payout: $8.77
Potential profit: $3.82
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $2.73
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $4.96
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$0.27

Yes position

Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $5.15
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $2.54
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: $0.15

No position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $4.97
Potential payout: $7.43
Potential profit: $2.46
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $4.97
Potential payout: $6.17
Potential profit: $1.2
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $0.7
Potential payout: $5.85
Potential profit: $5.15
Multiplier: 8.37x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $1.06
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $4.5
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $0.4
Potential payout: $4.76
Potential profit: $4.36
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.6

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.37
Potential profit: $4.37
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.57
Potential profit: $3.57
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $2.54
Potential payout: $3.51
Potential profit: $0.96
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.33
Potential profit: $3.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Warsh say "Federal Reserve" 5+ times during swearing-in?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.13
Potential profit: $3.13
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.9
Potential profit: $2.9
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.71
Potential profit: $2.71
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $0.58
Potential payout: $2.56
Potential profit: $1.99
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: -$0.42

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $1.97
Potential payout: $2.33
Potential profit: $0.36
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$0.03

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will "World Cup" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 6?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.52

No position

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.97

Yes position

Will Jensen Huang say "Anthropic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.94

Yes position

Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.8

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.44

Yes position

Will Trump say "UFC" this week? (March 22)

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

Yes position

Will Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08

Yes position

Will Jensen Huang say "OpenAI" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.9

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.87

No position

Kash Patel out by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.71

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.67

Yes position

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.61

Yes position

Will Jensen Huang say "Deep Learning" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.59

No position

Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.56

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.53

Yes position

Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.48

Yes position

Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" this week? (March 22)

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during Kentucky visit?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.41

Yes position

Will Trump attend UFC 327?

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.37

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.36

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET