Polymarket Trader

outcomes

@outcomenoble

0x03c8118da338a9dafb2bae9a4e89055203a30e01

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $4.14K
Realized PnL: $16.56K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 14
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $152.42
Potential payout: $60.97K
Potential profit: $60.82K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$104.14

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 21.9%
Current value: $655.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.34K
Multiplier: 4.58x
User PnL: -$844.5

No position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 78.2%
Current value: $2.34K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $655.5
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: $844.5

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $170
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $2.33K
Multiplier: 14.71x
User PnL: $27.5

Yes position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $170
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.83K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$130

Yes position

Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game?

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.55K
Potential profit: $1.55K
User PnL: -$35.57

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $142.5
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.36K
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$7.5

Yes position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $125
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $875
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$75

Yes position

Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $198.75
Potential payout: $749.98
Potential profit: $551.24
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$18.75

Yes position

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $32.48
Potential payout: $499.67
Potential profit: $467.19
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$12.49

Yes position

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $121.5
Potential payout: $299.99
Potential profit: $178.49
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $26.25
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $223.75
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$11.25

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $5.87
Potential payout: $24.45
Potential profit: $18.58
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: $4.65

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Galions Sharks position

LoL: Galions Sharks vs French Flair - Game 1 Winner

Ends Mar 5, 2026

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $3.6K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.52K

Yes position

Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.42K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.07K

Yes position

Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $863

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $632.64

Yes position

Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $605.55

No position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $545.85

No position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $499.99

No position

Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $400

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $399.99

No position

Thailand strikes Cambodia by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $399.91

Yes position

Thailand strikes Cambodia by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $380.31

Yes position

US strike on Colombia by December 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 22.5%
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: $377.04

Yes position

Will MrBeast's next video get less than 60 million views on week 1?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $367.18

Yes position

Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $363.51

Yes position

Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15?

Ends Dec 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $307.06

No position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?

Ends Dec 13, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $285.14

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $272.6

No position

Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $265.22

No position

Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?

Ends Oct 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $255.92

No position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $246.81

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $243.4

No position

Will Unity Bancorp (UNTY) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $242.32

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Yes 15% 250 shares
Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.?

Yes 10% 87 shares
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

Yes 10% 35 shares
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Yes 86.1% 500 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

No 14.2% 1,000 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

No 18.8% 1,000 shares
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Yes 20% 1,000 shares
Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.?

Yes 8% 20 shares
Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.?

Yes 11% 29 shares
Will the US federal government take a stake in Pfizer Inc.?

Yes 9% 38 shares
Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad?

Yes 3% 598.33 shares
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

No 49.5% 500 shares