Polymarket Trader

ilovecarrots

0x03e1b2a5d7dc3685e6f6273842a32328d271e180

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $970.56
Realized PnL: $1.37K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $73.5
Potential payout: $699.99
Potential profit: $626.49
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$52.5

Yes position

Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Ends Oct 5, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $75.6
Potential payout: $504
Potential profit: $428.4
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: -$16.06

Yes position

Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $106.26
Potential payout: $400.99
Potential profit: $294.73
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$2.92

Yes position

Will Herman Mashaba be the next mayor of Johannesburg?

Ends Nov 5, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $24
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $376
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$14

No position

Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 33%
Current value: $103.13
Potential payout: $312.5
Potential profit: $209.38
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: $3.13

Yes position

Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?

Ends Oct 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $1.65
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $298.35
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$15.35

Yes position

Will Cameron Boozer be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $15.34
Potential payout: $236
Potential profit: $220.66
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$3.18

OpenAI position

Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $46.6
Potential payout: $233
Potential profit: $186.4
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: -$11.15

Yes position

Will Marcelo Maranata win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.35
Potential payout: $231.63
Potential profit: $231.28
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$15.39

Yes position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $26.45
Potential payout: $230
Potential profit: $203.55
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$19.05

Yes position

Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 5% or more?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $13.58
Potential payout: $226.3
Potential profit: $212.72
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: $4.53

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $9.3
Potential payout: $208.98
Potential profit: $199.68
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: -$4.45

Yes position

Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $27
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $173
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $23
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $177
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $41
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $159
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $7

Yes position

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $65
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $135
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: $15

Yes position

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $3.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $196.5
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$6.5

No position

Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $116.03
Potential payout: $195
Potential profit: $78.98
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $75.08

No position

Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $105.83
Potential payout: $194.18
Potential profit: $88.35
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $5.83

Yes position

Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $15.23
Potential payout: $190.4
Potential profit: $175.17
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$24.75

No position

Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $18.04
Potential payout: $189.92
Potential profit: $171.88
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$4.75

Yes position

Will USD be at least 2.0M Iranian rials on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $4.67
Potential payout: $186.88
Potential profit: $182.21
Multiplier: 40.00x
User PnL: -$12.15

Yes position

Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $38.96
Potential payout: $185.5
Potential profit: $146.55
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $16.55
Potential payout: $174.24
Potential profit: $157.69
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$2.61

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.11

No position

Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 69.5%
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $153.34

Yes position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $148

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $137.33

No position

Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 98.5%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $95.14

No position

Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 91%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $70.06

No position

Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.43

Yes position

Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 24.5%
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $65.39

Yes position

Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 87.7%
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $52.88

Yes position

Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?

Ends Oct 17, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $45.33

Yes position

Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $41.67

Yes position

Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.06

No position

Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 98%
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $30.7

No position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 41.5%
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $28.72

Yes position

Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: $28.34

Yes position

Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $27.06

No position

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 37.5%
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $24.29

No position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 64%
Multiplier: 1.56x
User PnL: $23.75

Yes position

Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.6B?

Ends Jul 14, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Multiplier: 16.81x
User PnL: $23.57

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.73

No position

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 25.5%
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $22.56

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 18%
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: $22.53

Yes position

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.82

Yes position

Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $20.7

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?

Yes 99.8% 171.15 shares
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

No 75% 137.65 shares
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01?

No 87% 244.65 shares
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?

Yes 99.9% 308.42 shares
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

Yes 89% 200 shares
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30?

Yes 4.5% 460.21 shares
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Yes 36% 55.88 shares
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?

No 31% 205.35 shares
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?

No 21.9% 116.28 shares
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Yes 7.8% 741.13 shares
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

No 11.1% 1,006.2 shares
Will Marcelo Maranata win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?

Yes 6.8% 231.63 shares