Polymarket Trader

DontTrustMe

0x04039b3e116a67715eb5a13c1486724ed66ca7ee

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $13.74K
Realized PnL: $8.49K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $3.79K
Potential payout: $4.1K
Potential profit: $307.5
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $715.52

No position

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 41.2%
Current value: $1.23K
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $1.77K
Multiplier: 2.43x
User PnL: -$261.41

Yes position

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $175.5
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $1.12K
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$46.49

No position

Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

Ends Apr 23, 2027

Implied probability: 97%
Current value: $1.09K
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $33.67
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $55.49

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $996.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $3.5
User PnL: $194

No position

Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 17, 2027

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $713.9
Potential payout: $815.89
Potential profit: $101.99
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $34.73

No position

Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 82.8%
Current value: $621
Potential payout: $750
Potential profit: $129
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$13.25

No position

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $601.25
Potential payout: $650
Potential profit: $48.75
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $52.25

No position

Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.3%
Current value: $587.52
Potential payout: $629.71
Potential profit: $42.19
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $51.01

No position

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.6%
Current value: $561.3
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $38.7
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $46.3

No position

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $462.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $37.5
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $44.3

No position

Will Alberta join the US?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $469.8
Potential payout: $484.83
Potential profit: $15.03
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $30.05

Yes position

Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 17, 2027

Implied probability: 59%
Current value: $224.2
Potential payout: $380
Potential profit: $155.8
Multiplier: 1.69x
User PnL: $27.6

No position

Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $285.28
Potential payout: $296.09
Potential profit: $10.81
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $15.56

No position

Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $240.08
Potential payout: $258.15
Potential profit: $18.07
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $49.18

No position

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $224.99
Potential payout: $249.99
Potential profit: $25
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $5.82

No position

Russian strike on Poland by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $237.17
Potential payout: $237.76
Potential profit: $0.59
User PnL: $28.85

No position

Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 17, 2027

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $177.44
Potential payout: $209.99
Potential profit: $32.55
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $5.15

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.7%
Current value: $191.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $8.7
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $31.3

No position

US x China Military clash before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $185
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $15
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $15

No position

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $192.79
Potential payout: $199.99
Potential profit: $7.2
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $25.3

No position

UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $177.67
Potential payout: $188.41
Potential profit: $10.74
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $11.97

No position

Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 17, 2027

Implied probability: 95.6%
Current value: $164.94
Potential payout: $172.53
Potential profit: $7.59
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $12.11

No position

Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 17, 2027

Implied probability: 93.8%
Current value: $135.16
Potential payout: $144.09
Potential profit: $8.93
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $14.88

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.97K

Yes position

Lecornu out as French PM by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.32K

No position

Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $433.46

Yes position

Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $217.25

No position

Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $201.52

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $163

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $162.53

No position

US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.73

No position

Macron out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $128.6

No position

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $124.29

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: France Edition

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.3

No position

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $119

No position

Will Olivier Faure be the next Prime Minister of France?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.12

Yes position

French election called by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $61.16

No position

French election called by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.68

Yes position

Will no male player win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.15

No position

French election called by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $32.58

No position

Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $27.48

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.51

No position

Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.73

No position

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15

No position

French election called by October 17?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.09

Yes position

French confidence vote fails?

Ends Sep 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.61

No position

Macron out by October 31, 2025?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.75

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

No 91.6% 24 shares
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

No 91.6% 24 shares
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

No 91.6% 40 shares
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

No 91.4% 20 shares
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

No 91.6% 26.62 shares
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

No 91.6% 26.62 shares
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

No 91.6% 26.62 shares
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

No 91.6% 26.62 shares
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

No 91.6% 26.62 shares
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

No 91.6% 37.5 shares
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

No 91.6% 32.67 shares
Will Multiple Candidates be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?

No 91.6% 37.5 shares