PavtheGreat

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $101.24
Potential payout: $4.5K
Potential profit: $4.4K
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$2.6

Yes position

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $75.25
Potential payout: $4.3K
Potential profit: $4.22K
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$23.65

Yes position

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $91.44
Potential payout: $3.6K
Potential profit: $3.51K
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$9.36

Yes position

Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $17.4
Potential payout: $2.9K
Potential profit: $2.88K
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$2.12

Yes position

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $43.4
Potential payout: $2.8K
Potential profit: $2.76K
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$208.6

Yes position

Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $102.35
Potential payout: $2.3K
Potential profit: $2.2K
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: $3.45

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $106.05
Potential payout: $2.1K
Potential profit: $1.99K
Multiplier: 19.80x
User PnL: $7.35

Yes position

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 36.3%
Current value: $705.92
Potential payout: $1.95K
Potential profit: $1.24K
Multiplier: 2.76x
User PnL: $411.49

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $152
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.45K
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 8.4%
Current value: $133.6
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.47K
Multiplier: 11.98x
User PnL: $31.2

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
User PnL: -$1.02K

Yes position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $12
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.49K
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$333

Yes position

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $62.3
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $1.34K
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: -$8.27

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 92.2%
Current value: $1.1K
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $93.81
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $68.39

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 97.4%
Current value: $1.07K
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $28.6
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $103.4

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $1.1K
User PnL: -$506

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $989.17
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $86.02
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $40.02

Yes position

Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $1.01K
User PnL: -$904.41

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 24.1%
Current value: $241
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $759
Multiplier: 4.15x
User PnL: -$13

Yes position

Will Doug Turner win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$238.13

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $85
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $915
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$320

Yes position

Will "Giant" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $999.99
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $132.51
Potential payout: $946.47
Potential profit: $813.96
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: $9.46

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?

Implied probability: 49.5%
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: $294.4

No position

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $274.11

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $175

Nothing position

Nothing Ever Happens: May

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $171.97

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.32

Yes position

Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115.55

Yes position

Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.63

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.5

Yes position

Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.8

No position

Will Monica Sánchez advance from the CA-38 primary election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90

Yes position

Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.1

No position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.75

No position

Will Trump praise Allah again by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.75

Yes position

Will Susie Lee be the Democratic nominee for NV-03?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.37

No position

Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.5

No position

Will Zachariah Wooden advance from the CA-07 primary election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.73

No position

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55

No position

Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.33

No position

Will "The Balusters" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

No position

Will Verlina Reynolds-Jackson be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.5

No position

Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.5

No position

Will Tuka Gafari advance from the CA-19 primary election?