Polymarket Trader

m5297

0x05084ac84f39061b331a1614a03663c0a0d3d8db

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $170.52
Realized PnL: -$19.49
Win rate: 33.3%
Open positions: 10
Closed positions: 3
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.67K
Potential profit: $22.67K
User PnL: -$128.84

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.37K
Potential profit: $20.37K
User PnL: -$149.14

Yes position

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $12.83
Potential payout: $5.13K
Potential profit: $5.12K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$87.16

Yes position

Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $24.42
Potential payout: $3.05K
Potential profit: $3.03K
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: $16.42

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $63.33
Potential payout: $666.67
Potential profit: $603.33
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$36.67

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 8.2%
Current value: $46.17
Potential payout: $566.45
Potential profit: $520.28
Multiplier: 12.27x
User PnL: $2.18

Yes position

Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $3.89
Potential payout: $555.56
Potential profit: $551.67
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$1.11

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $15.33
Potential payout: $309.78
Potential profit: $294.44
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: -$12.55

Yes position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $4.55
Potential payout: $116.6
Potential profit: $112.05
Multiplier: 25.64x
User PnL: -$0.45

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.1%
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: $0.51

Yes position

Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Trump attend his son's wedding?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$15

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 8.1% 296.17 shares
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

Yes 4.3% 116.6 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 7.4% 270.27 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 0.1% 20,150 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.2% 15,000 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.2% 7,500 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 12.3% 38.13 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 10.7% 44.71 shares
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 10.6% 44.72 shares
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

Yes 0.5% 552.43 shares
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

Yes 0.2% 2,500 shares
Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

Yes 0.9% 555.56 shares