Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $103.96
- Potential profit
- $103.96
- User PnL
- -$2
Polymarket Trader
0x0514819806Dd5bE48fd6ABd96f3e980c871db196-1757955052382
0x0514819806dd5be48fd6abd96f3e980c871db196
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $82.36
- Realized PnL
- $58.26
- Win rate
- 66.7%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 21
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $42.86
- Potential profit
- $42.86
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $28.6
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $11.4
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$1.4
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $20.58
- Potential payout
- $38.46
- Potential profit
- $17.88
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $0.58
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.64
- Potential profit
- $24.64
- User PnL
- -$9.86
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.9
- Potential profit
- $17.9
- User PnL
- -$9.85
Up position
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $7.63
- Potential payout
- $17.54
- Potential profit
- $9.91
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$2.37
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.62
- Potential profit
- $13.62
- User PnL
- -$3.96
No position
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $11.89
- Potential payout
- $12.05
- Potential profit
- $0.16
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $1.89
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.76
- Potential profit
- $11.76
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $6.27
- Potential payout
- $8.2
- Potential profit
- $1.93
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $1.27
No position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $5.57
- Potential payout
- $6.67
- Potential profit
- $1.1
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0.57
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.85
- Potential profit
- $3.85
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.1%
- Current value
- $0.74
- Potential payout
- $3.7
- Potential profit
- $2.96
- Multiplier
- 4.99x
- User PnL
- -$0.26
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $1.09
- Potential payout
- $2.5
- Potential profit
- $1.41
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $0.09
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.75
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.7
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.22
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.13
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.07
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.21
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.69
No position
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.95
No position
Will Trump say "Muslim" during King Charles visit?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.7
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.44
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.29
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.23
Yes position
US government shutdown by October 1?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.12
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.69
No position
US government shutdown by October 1?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.22
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$4.66
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$15.76
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?Up 57% 17.54 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 74% 32.6 shares
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?No 75% 40 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 46% 32.61 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 40% 2.5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 52% 38.46 shares
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?No 70% 42.86 shares
- Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?Yes 83% 6.02 shares
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?No 75% 6.67 shares
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?No 61% 8.2 shares
- Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?No 83% 12.05 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ETUp 96% 21.56 shares