.CEO.

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.76
Potential payout: $218.48
Potential profit: $217.71
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$9.24

Yes position

Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.93
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $141.93
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.61
Potential payout: $135.75
Potential profit: $135.14
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$1.39

Yes position

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $124.06
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $1.41
Potential payout: $112.75
Potential profit: $111.34
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$8.59

No position

GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.2%
Current value: $6.93
Potential payout: $112.62
Potential profit: $105.7
Multiplier: 16.26x
User PnL: $2.93

Yes position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $3.72
Potential payout: $89.54
Potential profit: $85.82
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$4.07

Yes position

Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.41
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $58.41
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$0.59

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $4.46
Potential payout: $52.44
Potential profit: $47.99
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $0.76
Potential payout: $37.04
Potential profit: $36.28
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $35.48
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.77

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $15.82
Multiplier: 19.65x
User PnL: -$0.15

No position

Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $10.2
Potential payout: $11.27
Potential profit: $1.07
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$0.51

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.05
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.55
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$0.55

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 85.6%
Current value: $8.56
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $1.45
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $6.56

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $1.77
Potential payout: $9.55
Potential profit: $7.78
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$0.14

Yes position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $5.88
Potential profit: $5.03
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.7%
Current value: $1.05
Potential payout: $5.1
Potential profit: $4.05
Multiplier: 4.84x
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $1.18
Potential payout: $4
Potential profit: $2.82
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: $0.18

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $0.35
Potential payout: $2.78
Potential profit: $2.43
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$0.65

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $0.35
Potential payout: $1.08
Potential profit: $0.73
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$0.65

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.16

Yes position

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.57

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.21

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.38

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.51

Yes position

Will Trump say "Boeing" this week?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.28

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.12

No position

GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will Trump say "Xi" this week?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.08

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.08

No position

GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will Trump post "Big" or "Bigger" or "Biggest" on Truth Social this week?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will Trump or Melania say "Nuclear" during the Congressional Picnic?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.04

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.03

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will Trump say "China" this week?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.01

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.48

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.48

No position

Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June?