Polymarket Trader

fubar9

0x07622d00bfb458632b81696afe13afe969ab8e99

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $74.38
Realized PnL: $15.35
Win rate: 61.9%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 21
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.59
Potential profit: $26.59
User PnL: -$2.43

No position

No one announced as next James Bond?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.06
Potential payout: $24.99
Potential profit: $24.93
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.62

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $4.1
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $15.9
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$3.25

Nothing position

Nothing Ever Happens: July

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $15.11
Potential payout: $19.75
Potential profit: $4.64
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: -$0.34

Yes position

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $19.65
Potential payout: $19.66
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $2.55

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $10.69
Potential payout: $15.61
Potential profit: $4.92
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 16.3%
Current value: $2.26
Potential payout: $13.87
Potential profit: $11.61
Multiplier: 6.13x
User PnL: $1.14

No position

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $6
Potential payout: $10.44
Potential profit: $4.44
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $10.1
Potential profit: $9.25
Multiplier: 11.83x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 32%
Current value: $3.2
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $6.8
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: $1.3

Yes position

Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $7.26
Potential payout: $9.75
Potential profit: $2.49
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: -$0.54

Yes position

Will 250 to 279 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $6.1
Potential profit: $6.03
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: $0.01

Yes position

Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $1.42
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $3.58
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$0.48

Yes position

Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.98
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.93
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$0.93

Yes position

Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 73%
Current value: $3.6
Potential payout: $4.93
Potential profit: $1.33
Multiplier: 1.37x
User PnL: $0.15

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $6.56

Yes position

Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.73

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.54

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.6%
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.9

No position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 75%
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $0.8

Yes position

Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.74

No position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $0.36

Yes position

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $0.14

No position

Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.7%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 75%
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.07

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 79.5%
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$0.59

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 34%
Multiplier: 2.94x
User PnL: -$0.9

No position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$1.22

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$1.5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Yes 21.5% 2.25 shares
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Yes 18% 1.69 shares
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

No 58% 5.52 shares
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

No 65% 4.92 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 87% 4.89 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Yes 87% 9.77 shares
Nothing Ever Happens: July

Nothing 79% 4.87 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Yes 70% 4.93 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Yes 40% 5 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Yes 33% 5 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Yes 33% 5 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

No 66% 17.23 shares