Polymarket Trader

karlk

0x07778adcfed675715ed2974ac9562c737aeb4b7f

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $750.93
Realized PnL: $2.46K
Win rate: 54.2%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $4.33
Potential payout: $788.12
Potential profit: $783.79
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$58.72

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $30.58
Potential payout: $719.42
Potential profit: $688.84
Multiplier: 23.53x
User PnL: -$8.06

Yes position

Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $96.35
Potential payout: $507.1
Potential profit: $410.75
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: $55.78

No position

Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $479.38
Potential profit: $479.38
User PnL: -$40.68

No position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $28.9
Potential payout: $412.82
Potential profit: $383.92
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$8.26

Yes position

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $2.65
Potential payout: $407.31
Potential profit: $404.66
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$26.68

Yes position

Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $25.96
Potential payout: $399.41
Potential profit: $373.45
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$13.98

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $6.8
Potential payout: $367.56
Potential profit: $360.76
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$22.61

No position

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.84
Potential payout: $335.81
Potential profit: $334.97
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$29.38

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.84
Potential payout: $335.81
Potential profit: $334.97
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$29.38

Yes position

Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 12.4%
Current value: $40.92
Potential payout: $330
Potential profit: $289.08
Multiplier: 8.06x
User PnL: $0.54

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $1.79
Potential payout: $326.15
Potential profit: $324.36
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$33.05

Yes position

Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $12.17
Potential payout: $324.61
Potential profit: $312.44
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: -$7.3

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $14.57
Potential payout: $323.76
Potential profit: $309.19
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$14.63

Yes position

Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $307.81
Potential profit: $307.81
User PnL: -$24.62

Yes position

Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $16.91
Potential payout: $289.04
Potential profit: $272.13
Multiplier: 17.09x
User PnL: -$8.82

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $75.84
Potential payout: $286.18
Potential profit: $210.34
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $50.08

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $278.52
Potential payout: $278.66
Potential profit: $0.14
User PnL: $239.51

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $276.91
Potential profit: $275.11
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$21.46

Yes position

Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $269.14
Potential profit: $269.14
User PnL: -$27.18

Yes position

Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $24.1
Potential payout: $267.77
Potential profit: $243.67
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: $2.68

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $2.59
Potential payout: $225.27
Potential profit: $222.68
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$34.97

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $45.68
Potential payout: $222.82
Potential profit: $177.14
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $5.77

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $38.8
Potential payout: $221.69
Potential profit: $182.89
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$1.11

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $523.3

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $512.75

Yes position

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $350.26

No position

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $204.93

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $185.66

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $110.9

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.92

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $103.37

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.8

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.28

Yes position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.55

Yes position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.56

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.81

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Justin Gaethje position

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will France win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.33

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.36

Lucknow Super Giants position

Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.37

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.13

Yes position

Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.13

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.13

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?

No 7.3% 33.15 shares
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?

Yes 12.7% 147.5 shares
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?

Yes 12.6% 70 shares
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

No 8.6% 49.9 shares
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

No 5.5% 84.44 shares
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?

Yes 11.4% 37.5 shares
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?

Yes 11.4% 75 shares
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

No 9.2% 345.04 shares
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 19% 43.14 shares
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 18% 148.54 shares
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?

No 20% 199.42 shares
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 19% 25.9 shares