Yes position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $38.93
- Potential payout
- $71.43
- Potential profit
- $32.5
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- -$1.07
Polymarket Trader
Poltergeist94
0x07bb880804a4444587699f3c5e5f07d19e15fcca
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $649.62
- Realized PnL
- $66.03
- Win rate
- 75%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 58%
- Current value
- $38.03
- Potential payout
- $65.57
- Potential profit
- $27.54
- Multiplier
- 1.72x
- User PnL
- -$1.97
Yes position
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $36.77
- Potential payout
- $58.83
- Potential profit
- $22.06
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$1.47
No position
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $42.76
- Potential payout
- $58.17
- Potential profit
- $15.42
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $2.76
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $39.2
- Potential payout
- $53.33
- Potential profit
- $14.13
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- -$0.8
No position
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $42.28
- Potential payout
- $50.63
- Potential profit
- $8.35
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $2.28
No position
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $21.49
- Potential payout
- $49.4
- Potential profit
- $27.91
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$0.74
N
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $17.1
- Potential payout
- $46.86
- Potential profit
- $29.76
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$3.98
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67%
- Current value
- $31.27
- Potential payout
- $46.67
- Potential profit
- $15.4
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- $0.8
No position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $40.23
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $5.23
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.23
No position
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 36%
- Current value
- $15.18
- Potential payout
- $42.17
- Potential profit
- $26.99
- Multiplier
- 2.78x
- User PnL
- -$7.17
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $21.6
- Potential payout
- $35.7
- Potential profit
- $14.1
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- -$0.18
No position
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $28.36
- Potential payout
- $35.67
- Potential profit
- $7.31
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.89
No position
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $25.67
- Potential payout
- $34
- Potential profit
- $8.33
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $1
No position
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $25.21
- Potential payout
- $33.84
- Potential profit
- $8.63
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $1.86
No position
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.2%
- Current value
- $21.69
- Potential payout
- $32.27
- Potential profit
- $10.58
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- -$0.77
Yes position
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $24.06
- Potential payout
- $31.87
- Potential profit
- $7.81
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $0.71
No position
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $23.37
- Potential payout
- $30.75
- Potential profit
- $7.38
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $0.92
Over position
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $24.16
- Potential payout
- $30.2
- Potential profit
- $6.04
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $21.29
- Potential payout
- $27.12
- Potential profit
- $5.83
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $0.14
Y
Yes position
Will the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $22.29
- Potential payout
- $26.69
- Potential profit
- $4.4
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.13
No position
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $23.42
- Potential payout
- $26.46
- Potential profit
- $3.04
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $1.19
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $2.76
- Potential payout
- $26.32
- Potential profit
- $23.55
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$2.24
No position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $22.5
- Potential payout
- $25.43
- Potential profit
- $2.92
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.38
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 2?
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $25.93
Yes position
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.68
No position
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $9.6
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $4.56
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.45
No position
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.99
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.15
N
No position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $2.11
No position
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $1.96
No position
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.86
Yes position
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.84
No position
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.52
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 89.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $0.95
No position
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.76
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $0.66
Y
Yes position
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0
N
No position
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-09 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Weed rescheduled by December 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.1%
- Multiplier
- 4.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
No position
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- -$0.31
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.94
No position
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$1.78
No position
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.94
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5Over 80% 30.2 shares
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 61% 35.7 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 2?No 55% 89.42 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 2?No 26% 89.42 shares
- Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?No 86% 44.44 shares
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?No 78% 27.12 shares
- Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 68m and 77m?No 53% 42.17 shares
- FDA approves Retatrutide this year?No 88.7% 45.97 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No 65.3% 46.67 shares
- Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 65% 58.83 shares
- Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No 90% 46.62 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?No 42.5% 60.32 shares