No position
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 48%
- Current value
- $37.65
- Potential payout
- $78.43
- Potential profit
- $40.78
- Multiplier
- 2.08x
- User PnL
- -$2.35
Polymarket Trader
thunderquack
0x07fd560b73806637ba2474d651f66cdfc796ad26
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $395.98
- Realized PnL
- $573.4
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $57.05
- Potential payout
- $61.71
- Potential profit
- $4.66
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $7.05
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $26.47
- Potential payout
- $34.6
- Potential profit
- $8.13
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $1.56
No position
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $30.41
- Potential payout
- $34.36
- Potential profit
- $3.95
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24.62
- Potential profit
- $24.62
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $21.72
- Potential payout
- $24.14
- Potential profit
- $2.41
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $0.72
No position
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $19.07
- Potential payout
- $23.26
- Potential profit
- $4.19
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.93
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $20.34
- Potential payout
- $22.99
- Potential profit
- $2.64
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.34
No position
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.61
- Potential profit
- $21.61
- User PnL
- -$15
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $19.18
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $0.82
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.18
Yes position
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
Ends Jul 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $9.89
- Potential payout
- $16.63
- Potential profit
- $6.73
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- -$3.43
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $14.37
- Potential payout
- $15.21
- Potential profit
- $0.84
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $14.12
- Potential payout
- $14.87
- Potential profit
- $0.75
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.28
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $10.03
- Potential payout
- $14.23
- Potential profit
- $4.2
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $1.04
No position
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $11.91
- Potential payout
- $13.93
- Potential profit
- $2.02
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $12.21
- Potential payout
- $13.64
- Potential profit
- $1.43
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.21
No position
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 89%
- Current value
- $11.96
- Potential payout
- $13.44
- Potential profit
- $1.48
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.1%
- Current value
- $12.64
- Potential payout
- $13.43
- Potential profit
- $0.79
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.24
N
No position
Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $11.67
- Potential payout
- $13.33
- Potential profit
- $1.67
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.67
No position
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $12.19
- Potential payout
- $13.25
- Potential profit
- $1.06
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.53
No position
X banned in any European country by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78%
- Current value
- $10.23
- Potential payout
- $13.12
- Potential profit
- $2.89
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $0.23
No position
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.8%
- Current value
- $11.82
- Potential payout
- $12.35
- Potential profit
- $0.52
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.18
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.2%
- Current value
- $11.16
- Potential payout
- $11.73
- Potential profit
- $0.57
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
No position
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $9.88
- Potential payout
- $10.49
- Potential profit
- $0.6
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.06
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.05
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $63.24
Yes position
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.36
No position
Will Russia capture Udachne before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.27
No position
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.08
No position
Will Russia capture Dorozhnje by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.26
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.79
No position
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.88
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.4
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.34
Yes position
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.59
No position
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18
No position
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by April 30?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.15
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.99
No position
Will Russia capture Siversk by October 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.77
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.35
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.16
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.79
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.81
No position
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.44
No position
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.41
No position
Will Russia capture Siversk by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.19
No position
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $10.15
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.94
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump say "Radical Left Lunatic" this week?No 82% 3.71 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1:35AM-1:40AM ETDown 68% 1.47 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ETUp 39% 3.03 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ETUp 33% 3.03 shares
- Will Trump say "Radical Left Lunatic" this week?No 67% 1.49 shares
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?No 93.7% 2.56 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 5.4 shares
- US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes 63% 1.59 shares
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?No 81% 6.1 shares
- Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No 65% 6.63 shares
- Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?No 82.7% 120.98 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Yes 37% 5.41 shares