No position
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $52.49
- Potential payout
- $58
- Potential profit
- $5.51
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $6.5
Polymarket Trader
Sliding0493
0x08101680a2b8ab6bde1022e3f7e0da95a6299650
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $188.76
- Realized PnL
- $239.94
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58
- Potential profit
- $58
- User PnL
- -$47.22
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $37.78
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $2.22
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.14
No position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.6%
- Current value
- $34.98
- Potential payout
- $37
- Potential profit
- $2.02
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $3.33
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Current value
- $23.91
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $1.09
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $2.86
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $16.29
- Potential payout
- $18
- Potential profit
- $1.71
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.99
No position
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $13.88
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $1.13
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.4
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $9.43
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.57
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.53
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $101.92
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.21
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.01
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.41
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.22
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.2
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.93
Yes position
Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.4
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.98
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.81
No position
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.55
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.4
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.96
Yes position
Will Iran strike nine or more countries in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.5
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.28
No position
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.25
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.8
No position
Epstein client list released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $2.73
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.7
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.6
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.45
No position
Will Hamas allow IDF to remain in Gaza?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.35
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.3
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Waymo operate in 10 cities on June 30 2026?Yes 6% 31.25 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 17% 30 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?No 99.9% 35 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?No 86% 17 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 49% 29.99 shares
- Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?No 0.1% 5 shares
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?No 84% 12 shares
- Will Waymo operate in 9 cities on June 30 2026?Yes 2.7% 50 shares
- Will Waymo operate in 10 cities on June 30 2026?Yes 15% 10 shares
- Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?Yes 17% 10 shares
- Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026?Yes 36% 10 shares
- Will Waymo operate in 10 cities on June 30 2026?Yes 15% 25 shares