No position
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $60.94K
- Potential payout
- $61.28K
- Potential profit
- $337.04
- User PnL
- $1.18K
Polymarket Trader
GollumGekko
@GollumGekko1
0x08458f7e9d2858027de579e4c3ca305475496b6f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $144.91K
- Realized PnL
- $160.44K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $687.29
- Potential payout
- $50.91K
- Potential profit
- $50.22K
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- $49.94
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $31.37K
- Potential payout
- $31.45K
- Potential profit
- $78.61
- User PnL
- $232.54
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $19.91K
- Potential payout
- $22K
- Potential profit
- $2.09K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $410.04
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $9.82K
- Potential payout
- $17.39K
- Potential profit
- $7.57K
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$1.97K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.41K
- Potential profit
- $16.41K
- User PnL
- -$3.02K
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.8%
- Current value
- $1.8K
- Potential payout
- $13.12K
- Potential profit
- $11.32K
- Multiplier
- 7.27x
- User PnL
- $4.95
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.92K
- Potential profit
- $11.92K
- User PnL
- -$2.03K
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $313.65
- Potential payout
- $11.84K
- Potential profit
- $11.52K
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- -$1.69K
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47%
- Current value
- $5.26K
- Potential payout
- $11.19K
- Potential profit
- $5.93K
- Multiplier
- 2.13x
- User PnL
- $176.08
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $5.79K
- Potential payout
- $10.62K
- Potential profit
- $4.83K
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $1.63K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$679.99
Yes position
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $145
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.85K
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$105
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $8.3K
- Potential payout
- $9.38K
- Potential profit
- $1.08K
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $1.15K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.51K
- Potential profit
- $8.51K
- User PnL
- -$160
Yes position
Will the US strike Venezuela next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8K
- Potential profit
- $8K
- User PnL
- -$486.56
Yes position
Will the US strike Yemen next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8K
- Potential profit
- $8K
- User PnL
- -$486.56
Yes position
Will the US strike Mexico next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.5K
- Potential profit
- $7.5K
- User PnL
- -$456.15
Yes position
Will the US strike Nigeria next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.5K
- Potential profit
- $7.5K
- User PnL
- -$456.15
Yes position
Will the US strike Iraq next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.25K
- Potential profit
- $7.25K
- User PnL
- -$440.95
Yes position
Will the US strike another country first?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.24K
- Potential profit
- $7.24K
- User PnL
- -$440.34
Yes position
Will the US strike Colombia next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7K
- Potential profit
- $7K
- User PnL
- -$441.1
Yes position
Will the US strike Syria next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.8K
- Potential profit
- $6.8K
- User PnL
- -$413.58
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $574.01
- Potential payout
- $6.75K
- Potential profit
- $6.18K
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$127.96
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.05K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.76K
No position
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- User PnL
- $9.86K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.85K
No position
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- User PnL
- $9.82K
No position
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $9.34K
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.83K
Yes position
Will the US strike Somalia next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.52K
No position
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- User PnL
- $5.89K
Yes position
Will the US strike Somalia next?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.98K
No position
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $4.89K
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- $4.26K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.04K
Yes position
Will the US strike Somalia next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.99K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.95K
Yes position
Will the US strike Somalia next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.84K
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.47K
No position
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.77K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.75K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.65K
Yes position
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.58K
No position
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.47K
No position
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- User PnL
- $2.46K
No position
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.43K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.9% 7,500 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.9% 52,000 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?Yes 85.1% 500 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?Yes 89.6% 583.54 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 33% 300.01 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 36% 310.92 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 36% 800 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No 11.6% 1,842.27 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 32% 287.52 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 32% 59.62 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 29% 108.32 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 29% 111 shares