Polymarket Trader

Rorschach-Kovacs

0x09896d27365d7ddea148eb31ba579ab290c31b82

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $430.05
Realized PnL: $3.07K
Win rate: 58.3%
Open positions: 7
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $32.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.97K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$10.48

Yes position

Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $37.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.96K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $22.5

Yes position

Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.2%
Current value: $174.16
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $904.22
Multiplier: 6.19x
User PnL: $105.14

Yes position

Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $8.37
Potential payout: $929.99
Potential profit: $921.62
Multiplier: 111.11x
User PnL: -$97.73

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.6%
Current value: $135.29
Potential payout: $870
Potential profit: $734.72
Multiplier: 6.43x
User PnL: $65.64

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 15.3%
Current value: $42.24
Potential payout: $276.97
Potential profit: $234.73
Multiplier: 6.56x
User PnL: $17.31

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.34K

Yes position

Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01K

Yes position

Maduro out by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $260.6

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $233.6

No position

Maduro mugshot released by January 9?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115.99

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.9%
Multiplier: 4.19x
User PnL: $50.63

Yes position

Will there be five or six announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $22

Yes position

Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19.71

No position

Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.6

Yes position

US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 24%
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: $10

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $7

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 24.5%
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $4.4

Yes position

Cardano ETF in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.9

Yes position

Will "Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m?

Ends Dec 8, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.2

No position

Maduro trial scheduled by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$1.3

Yes position

Trump's Christmas Wishlist Parlay

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will "Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m?

Ends Dec 8, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.91

Yes position

Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 32%
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.2

No position

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 2-8?

Ends Dec 9, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.9

Yes position

Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.12

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Yes 0.2% 5,000 shares
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 6.4% 237.54 shares
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?

Yes 25% 99.99 shares
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes 1% 1,000 shares
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference?

Yes 9% 200 shares
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes 21.8% 584.72 shares
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?

Yes 46% 55 shares
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Yes 15% 300 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Yes 39% 99.97 shares
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Yes 35% 14.7 shares
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 10, 2026?

Yes 0.9% 968.62 shares
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Yes 34% 14.71 shares