Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78%
- Current value
- $100.36
- Potential payout
- $128.67
- Potential profit
- $28.31
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $20.38
Polymarket Trader
s324c
0x099e3af477375bd4080b31b2046cf680e4e88201
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $515.9
- Realized PnL
- -$295.33
- Win rate
- 73.9%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 23
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $109.92
- Potential payout
- $110.97
- Potential profit
- $1.05
- User PnL
- $44.92
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $85.67
- Potential profit
- $85.67
- User PnL
- -$39.1
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $83.33
- User PnL
- -$47.33
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $79.48
- Potential payout
- $79.76
- Potential profit
- $0.28
- User PnL
- $48.64
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $41.33
- Potential payout
- $73.17
- Potential profit
- $31.84
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- $11.33
No position
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Current value
- $60.74
- Potential payout
- $62.39
- Potential profit
- $1.65
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $5.76
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.92
- Potential profit
- $58.92
- User PnL
- -$14.76
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $45.16
- Potential profit
- $45.16
- User PnL
- -$14
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $1.98
- Potential payout
- $34.47
- Potential profit
- $32.49
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- -$1.02
No position
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $29.15
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $4.18
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.22
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31.85
- Potential profit
- $31.85
- User PnL
- -$29.97
No position
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
Ends Apr 16, 2027- Implied probability
- 86%
- Current value
- $26.88
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $4.38
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $6.88
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54%
- Current value
- $15.96
- Potential payout
- $29.55
- Potential profit
- $13.59
- Multiplier
- 1.85x
- User PnL
- $0.96
No position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $22.41
- Potential payout
- $25.32
- Potential profit
- $2.91
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $2.41
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $16.97
- Potential payout
- $20.83
- Potential profit
- $3.86
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $1.98
Over position
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.8
- Potential profit
- $9.8
- User PnL
- -$5
Under position
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.43
- Potential profit
- $9.43
- User PnL
- -$5
Under position
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.43
- Potential profit
- $9.43
- User PnL
- -$5
Under position
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $5.52
- Potential payout
- $9.43
- Potential profit
- $3.91
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $0.52
Under position
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.26
- Potential profit
- $9.26
- User PnL
- -$4.91
Under position
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.09
- Potential profit
- $9.09
- User PnL
- -$4.91
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $5.21
- Potential payout
- $5.43
- Potential profit
- $0.22
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.25
Under position
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.97
- Potential profit
- $1.97
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 72%
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $15.67
Over position
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.23
Yes position
James Comey arrested by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.3
Under position
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
Under position
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.43
Under position
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.26
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.11
Over position
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.09
No position
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.16
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.14
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.08
No position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.64
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.22
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 10?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.83
Yes position
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.61
Under position
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.16
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.32
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.82
Yes position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$76.65
Yes position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$130.46
Yes position
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$155.06
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 71% 15.69 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 50% 36.36 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 50% 34.29 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 51% 15.69 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 22% 36.36 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 34% 34.29 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 46% 21.74 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 72% 20.83 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 42% 22.73 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 32% 35.29 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 86% 11.63 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 10?No 88.3% 11.11 shares