RIC25

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $2K
Potential payout: $2.55K
Potential profit: $548.62
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $543.5

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $209.05
Potential payout: $1.61K
Potential profit: $1.4K
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$62.58

Yes position

Enhanced Games: Hafthor Bjornsson Heaviest Deadlift Over 510 Kg?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $1.04K
User PnL: -$843.79

Rico position

Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $1.03K
User PnL: -$114.3

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $589.08
Potential payout: $701.29
Potential profit: $112.21
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $25.74

No position

Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 55%
Current value: $327.34
Potential payout: $595.17
Potential profit: $267.83
Multiplier: 1.82x
User PnL: $102.34

No position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $393.72
Potential payout: $579
Potential profit: $185.28
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $63.69

No position

Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $524.1
Potential payout: $560.53
Potential profit: $36.43
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $30.83

No position

Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $512.64
Potential payout: $554.21
Potential profit: $41.57
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $12.31

Yes position

Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $553.96
Potential profit: $553.96
User PnL: -$7.47

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $300
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $100
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: $108.59

Yes position

Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $191.38
Potential payout: $313.73
Potential profit: $122.35
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: $82.25

No position

Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $158.34
Potential payout: $196.7
Potential profit: $38.36
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $3.85

No position

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $145.93
Potential payout: $168.7
Potential profit: $22.77
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $27.61

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $10.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $89.55
Multiplier: 9.57x
User PnL: -$0.55

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $6.65
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $93.35
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$1.75

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.3%
Current value: $13.25
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $86.75
Multiplier: 7.55x
User PnL: -$2.75

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $18.45
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $81.54
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $2.25

Brazil position

Spread: Brazil (-1.5)

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $64.52
Potential profit: $64.52
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $21.14
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $24.32
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: $1.14

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $20.65
Potential payout: $43.48
Potential profit: $22.83
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $0.65

Yes position

Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $38.46
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $20.19
Potential payout: $37.74
Potential profit: $17.55
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $0.19

Yes position

Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $21.25
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $14.46
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: $1.25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.12K

Yes position

Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.92K

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.61K

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the second best AI model on September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.31K

Yes position

Will Levon Aronian win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas tournament?

Ends Jul 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.21K

Yes position

GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $880.15

No position

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.9%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $869

Yes position

Claude 4.8 released by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $840.77

No position

Grok 5 released by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $792.11

Yes position

Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $763.68

No position

Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $761.78

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $705.11

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $504.59

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $470.56

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $449.58

No position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $448.14

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $382.19

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $376.48

Yes position

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $363.04

No position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $330.03

Yes position

Prince Andrew released by February 19?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $285.36

No position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Implied probability: 95.9%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $279.11

No position

Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?