Sir-Deadlock-a-Lot

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.4%
Current value: $19.4
Potential payout: $441
Potential profit: $421.6
Multiplier: 22.73x
User PnL: -$19.42

Yes position

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 46%
Current value: $195.96
Potential payout: $426
Potential profit: $230.04
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: -$95.98

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 16.3%
Current value: $66.34
Potential payout: $407
Potential profit: $340.66
Multiplier: 6.13x
User PnL: $45.99

Yes position

Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be below 60%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $341.08
Potential profit: $341.08
User PnL: -$44.34

No position

Will Solihull Moors FC win on 2026-04-25?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $281.91
Potential profit: $281.91
User PnL: -$19.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 27?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $270.04
Potential profit: $270.04
User PnL: -$59.41

Yes position

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $19.85
Potential payout: $189
Potential profit: $169.16
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$2.89

Yes position

Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw?

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $176.28
Potential profit: $176.28
User PnL: -$30.73

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-03-31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $164.13
Potential profit: $164.13
User PnL: -$31.18

Yes position

Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be less than 1600.00 at the end of December 2026?

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $77.64
Potential payout: $160.08
Potential profit: $82.44
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $24.47

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Implied probability: 15.8%
Current value: $24.41
Potential payout: $155
Potential profit: $130.59
Multiplier: 6.35x
User PnL: $9.69

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $8.33
Potential payout: $154.33
Potential profit: $146
Multiplier: 18.52x
User PnL: -$55.8

Yes position

Will Milton Keynes Dons FC vs. Tranmere Rovers FC end in a draw?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $138.34
Potential profit: $138.34
User PnL: -$6.92

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 27?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $132.54
Potential profit: $132.54
User PnL: -$9.28

Yes position

Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.48
Potential payout: $121
Potential profit: $120.52
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$1.94

Yes position

Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.42
Potential payout: $121
Potential profit: $120.58
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$0.79

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $16.32
Potential payout: $120.86
Potential profit: $104.54
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$11.81

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 81.1%
Current value: $98.02
Potential payout: $120.86
Potential profit: $22.84
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $54.51

Yes position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $3.32
Potential payout: $120.86
Potential profit: $117.54
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$17.22

Yes position

Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.6
Potential payout: $120.86
Potential profit: $120.26
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$5.83

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $1.27
Potential payout: $120.86
Potential profit: $119.59
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$9.61

Yes position

Will the match end in a draw?

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $110.95
Potential profit: $110.95
User PnL: -$31.38

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $15.93
Potential payout: $109.89
Potential profit: $93.96
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $1.29

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-03-30?

Ends Mar 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $330

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $292.8

Yes position

Will Senegal win on 2026-03-28?

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $271.49

Yes position

Will Virtus Entella win on 2026-03-22?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $160.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 27?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $134.31

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-03-31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $103.55

Yes position

Will Virtus Entella vs. AC Reggiana 1919 end in a draw?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $97.4

No position

Will Al Fateh Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11?

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.21

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 27?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82

No position

Will Leinster win?

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $79.3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 25?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.65

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $70

No position

Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.77

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 26?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.04

Yes position

Will AC Reggiana 1919 win on 2026-03-22?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $47.49

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 27?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.98

Yes position

Will CD Oriente Petrolero win on 2026-04-26?

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40

Yes position

Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.99

No position

Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April meeting?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.2

No position

Will FC Hermannstadt win on 2026-04-24?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.72

Yes position

Will Liberia vs. Libya end in a draw?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.67

Yes position

Will the official USD to ARS exchange rate be between 1600.00 and 1699.99 at the end of December 2026?