Polymarket Trader

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

0x0c0e270cf879583d6a0142fc817e05b768d0434e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $808.22K
Realized PnL: $2.09M
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $3.93K
Potential payout: $603.89K
Potential profit: $599.96K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$792.3

Yes position

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $6.82K
Potential payout: $592.89K
Potential profit: $586.07K
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $2.19K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $354.53K
Potential payout: $429.74K
Potential profit: $75.2K
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $23.55K

Yes position

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $3.03K
Potential payout: $403.89K
Potential profit: $400.86K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$126.01

Yes position

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.97K
Potential payout: $302.75K
Potential profit: $300.78K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$397.21

Yes position

Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $1.86K
Potential payout: $195.71K
Potential profit: $193.85K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $328.01

Yes position

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $1.33K
Potential payout: $156.45K
Potential profit: $155.12K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $107.64

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $148.72K
Potential payout: $149.39K
Potential profit: $672.24
User PnL: $41.83

Yes position

Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $2.03K
Potential payout: $130.88K
Potential profit: $128.85K
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: $1.01K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $55.42K
Potential payout: $130.41K
Potential profit: $74.99K
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$15.77K

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $110.7K
Potential payout: $111.71K
Potential profit: $1.01K
User PnL: $3.86K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $906.15
Potential payout: $95.38K
Potential profit: $94.48K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $161.01

Yes position

Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $850.8
Potential payout: $89.56K
Potential profit: $88.71K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $151.17

Yes position

Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $622.93
Potential payout: $83.06K
Potential profit: $82.43K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$25.91

Yes position

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $601.08
Potential payout: $80.14K
Potential profit: $79.54K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $1.09K
Potential payout: $75.15K
Potential profit: $74.06K
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: $502.59

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.6%
Current value: $67.41K
Potential payout: $70.51K
Potential profit: $3.1K
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $8.67K

Yes position

Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $570
Potential payout: $60K
Potential profit: $59.43K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $101.28

Yes position

Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $390
Potential payout: $60K
Potential profit: $59.61K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$78.72

Yes position

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $390
Potential payout: $60K
Potential profit: $59.61K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$78.72

Yes position

Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $876.88
Potential payout: $53.14K
Potential profit: $52.27K
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $461.72

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $43.6K
Potential payout: $43.75K
Potential profit: $153.14
User PnL: $1.81K

Yes position

Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $320.72
Potential payout: $42.76K
Potential profit: $42.44K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$13.34

Yes position

Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $260.68
Potential payout: $34.76K
Potential profit: $34.5K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$10.84

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $171.16K

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Ends Aug 19, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $157.87K

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 33.3%
Multiplier: 3.01x
User PnL: $144.96K

Yes position

2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $137.14K

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.14K

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $128.24K

Democratic position

Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2022 election?

Ends Nov 8, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $120.77K

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?

Ends Jun 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.87K

No position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 75.7%
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $91.22K

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?

Ends Jun 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.79K

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?

Ends May 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.71K

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 24.4%
Multiplier: 4.11x
User PnL: $72.13K

No position

Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on February 1, 2023?

Ends Feb 1, 2023

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 1298627.56x
User PnL: $71.09K

Trump position

Favorite to win on Polymarket day before election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.2K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.12K

Democratic position

Which party will win the U.S. House in the 2022 elections?

Ends Nov 8, 2022

Implied probability: 0%
Multiplier: 793924.87x
User PnL: $62.15K

Democrat position

Senate: Will a Democrat (Kelly) or Republican (Masters) win in Arizona?

Ends Nov 15, 2022

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.38K

Yes position

Will Biden finish his term?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.8K

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 24.1%
Multiplier: 4.16x
User PnL: $56.52K

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.19K

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.9%
Multiplier: 6.29x
User PnL: $45K

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.7%
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: $44.23K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.62K

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.52K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 99.6% 20,506.88 shares
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

No 99.2% 2,966.15 shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 99.6% 13,060.55 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Yes 99.7% 15,700.77 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 0.8% 13,426.68 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 0.7% 19.7 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Yes 98.5% 218.12 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 14% 24.3 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

No 64% 63.56 shares
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms?

No 88% 2,794.3 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 85% 12,699.43 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 96.8% 18,777.54 shares