No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $31.59K
- Potential payout
- $31.67K
- Potential profit
- $79.16
- User PnL
- $4.06K
Polymarket Trader
garkein
0x0c65840880163c0fd8b4bb4696077be3b4dad60d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $92.19K
- Realized PnL
- $17.48K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $10.73K
- Potential payout
- $13.33K
- Potential profit
- $2.6K
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$301.28
No position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $12.45K
- Potential payout
- $12.5K
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- $247.5
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $9.32K
- Potential payout
- $10.3K
- Potential profit
- $978.49
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.86K
No position
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
Ends Jan 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $3.78K
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $220
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $100
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Current value
- $3.64K
- Potential payout
- $3.87K
- Potential profit
- $226.47
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $138.93
Yes position
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.6%
- Current value
- $1.28K
- Potential payout
- $3.4K
- Potential profit
- $2.12K
- Multiplier
- 2.66x
- User PnL
- -$76.5
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- User PnL
- -$2.46K
No position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $2.78K
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $225
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $75
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $2.47K
- Potential payout
- $2.85K
- Potential profit
- $384.75
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $592.26
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.62K
- Potential profit
- $2.62K
- User PnL
- -$2.2K
No position
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.32K
- Potential profit
- $2.32K
- User PnL
- -$432.99
No position
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $1.52K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $480.24
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $620.3
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $1.97K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $27
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $51
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Current value
- $1.92K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $81
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $59
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $1.85K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $150
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$1.52K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $1.58K
- Potential payout
- $1.8K
- Potential profit
- $225
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $81
No position
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $1.35K
- Potential payout
- $1.66K
- Potential profit
- $307.28
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- -$26.74
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $1.37K
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $25.9
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $24.1
No position
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $1.14K
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $162.19
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $135.32
Yes position
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $835
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $165
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$45
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $625
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $375
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$35
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.82K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.03K
No position
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.88K
T1 position
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14K
Yes position
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $934.89
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $860.77
No position
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $794.43
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $644.53
No position
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $634.1
T1 position
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)
Ends Nov 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $563.17
No position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $499.84
Yes position
Will XRP dip to $2.20 in November?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $480.39
Down position
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
Ends Nov 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $367.72
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $287.2
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $283.32
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $283.25
No position
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $275.85
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $271
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $263.33
Bilibili Gaming position
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $245.41
Yes position
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 million?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $232.7
No position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $232.3
Yes position
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $228.19
No position
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $227.28
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 59.8% 334.26 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 87% 200 shares
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes 39.8% 128.1 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 97.4% 500 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99.5% 5,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 13.2% 200 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 38% 800 shares
- Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?No 99.1% 811.22 shares
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseYes 34% 212.76 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No 91.1% 200 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No 91.1% 18.54 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?No 92.5% 1,700 shares