Polymarket Trader

HMRevenueandCustoms

0x0d05b729b369f742a3b47b1312de4424ad396a81

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.59K
Realized PnL: $88.13K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 20
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $825.07
Potential payout: $330.03K
Potential profit: $329.2K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$1.45K

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $302.57
Potential payout: $40.34K
Potential profit: $40.04K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$468.98

Yes position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $472.6
Potential payout: $37.81K
Potential profit: $37.34K
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$870.95

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $783.1
Potential payout: $34.8K
Potential profit: $34.02K
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$65.88

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $121.5
Potential payout: $27K
Potential profit: $26.88K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$136.35

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $242.94
Potential payout: $24.29K
Potential profit: $24.05K
Multiplier: 100.00x
User PnL: -$136.29

No position

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $90
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $19.91K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$314.64

Yes position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $162.37
Potential payout: $14.12K
Potential profit: $13.96K
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$55.74

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $346.5
Potential payout: $11K
Potential profit: $10.65K
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: $46.51

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $42.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.96K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$32.5

Yes position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $11.57
Potential payout: $2.1K
Potential profit: $2.09K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$17.29

Yes position

Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.09K
Potential profit: $1.09K
User PnL: -$37.56

Yes position

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $24.81
Potential payout: $976.82
Potential profit: $952.01
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: $2.49

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $5.1
Potential payout: $784.2
Potential profit: $779.1
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.76

Yes position

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $65.13
Potential payout: $465.24
Potential profit: $400.11
Multiplier: 7.14x
User PnL: -$21.5

Yes position

Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $4.7
Potential payout: $302.95
Potential profit: $298.25
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: $1.06

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $37.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $262.5
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.3%
Current value: $11.41
Potential payout: $156.35
Potential profit: $144.94
Multiplier: 13.70x
User PnL: -$33.07

No position

Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $39.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $10.75
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$1.02

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.96K

Yes position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.53K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $10.48K

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.49K

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.17K

No position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.27K

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.26K

Yes position

Iran strike on Israel by Friday?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.02K

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.74K

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.72K

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.65K

Yes position

Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?

Ends Sep 30, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.38K

Yes position

Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.16K

Yes position

Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.05K

Yes position

Iran ballistic missile strike on Israel by Friday?

Ends Jun 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $939.15

No position

Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $825.35

Yes position

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $782.22

Yes position

Israel military action against Iran by Friday?

Ends Jun 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $752.93

Yes position

Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $745.33

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $730.63

Yes position

Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $727.3

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $694.41

Yes position

Iran strike on Israel in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $568.37

Something position

Nothing Ever Happens: February

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $494.83

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?

Yes 1% 15,030 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Yes 0.7% 16,977.16 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?

Yes 0.5% 7,000 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?

Yes 2% 1,728.99 shares
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?

Yes 18.6% 465.24 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?

Yes 2.3% 13,111.38 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

No 58.7% 2,397.29 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes 13% 300 shares
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?

Yes 8.9% 977.3 shares
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

No 84.6% 325.49 shares
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday?

No 81% 50 shares
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

No 69.5% 405 shares