0x0d31...158e

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.88
Potential payout: $584.55
Potential profit: $583.67
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$7.58

Yes position

Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $6.13
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $243.88
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: $4.13

Yes position

US military draft authorized in 2026?

Implied probability: 8.1%
Current value: $12.96
Potential payout: $161.02
Potential profit: $148.06
Multiplier: 12.42x
User PnL: $1.23

Yes position

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?

Implied probability: 7.3%
Current value: $11.48
Potential payout: $158.31
Potential profit: $146.83
Multiplier: 13.79x
User PnL: -$2.02

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $51.23
Potential payout: $92.3
Potential profit: $41.08
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $14.23

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?

Implied probability: 2.7%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $34.77
Multiplier: 37.74x
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $3.27
Potential payout: $31.11
Potential profit: $27.84
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$0.73

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $2.12
Potential payout: $30.15
Potential profit: $28.02
Multiplier: 14.20x
User PnL: $0.12

No position

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $24.84
Potential profit: $24.82
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.99

No position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 20.2%
Current value: $4.17
Potential payout: $20.68
Potential profit: $16.51
Multiplier: 4.96x
User PnL: -$2.83

No position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.64
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.98

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 11.4%
Current value: $1.66
Potential payout: $14.6
Potential profit: $12.94
Multiplier: 8.81x
User PnL: -$0.34

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 19.4%
Current value: $2.55
Potential payout: $13.16
Potential profit: $10.61
Multiplier: 5.17x
User PnL: $0.55

Yes position

Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $1.92
Potential payout: $10.95
Potential profit: $9.03
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $0.44

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 28.4%
Current value: $3.07
Potential payout: $10.81
Potential profit: $7.74
Multiplier: 3.52x
User PnL: $1.07

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $2.89
Potential payout: $10.5
Potential profit: $7.61
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $0.89

Yes position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $1.32
Potential payout: $9.09
Potential profit: $7.77
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$0.68

No position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 76.3%
Current value: $6.63
Potential payout: $8.7
Potential profit: $2.07
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $1.63

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.4%
Current value: $1.07
Potential payout: $8.62
Potential profit: $7.55
Multiplier: 8.06x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $0.87
Potential payout: $6.45
Potential profit: $5.58
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$1.13

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $0.91
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $5.34
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$0.09

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $1.09
Potential payout: $6.25
Potential profit: $5.16
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $0.09

Yes position

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 52%
Current value: $3.03
Potential payout: $5.83
Potential profit: $2.8
Multiplier: 1.92x
User PnL: $1.03

Yes position

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $1.13
Potential payout: $5.26
Potential profit: $4.13
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $0.13

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.71

Yes position

Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.42

Yes position

Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.23

Yes position

Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.71

Yes position

Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.34

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.29

Yes position

Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.14

Yes position

Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.86

Yes position

Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.12

Yes position

Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.85

Yes position

Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.76

No position

Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.15

Yes position

Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.48

Yes position

Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.27

Yes position

Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.23

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.23

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.17

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.78

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.53

No position

Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?

Implied probability: 40.5%
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?