Yes position
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $10.5
- Potential payout
- $4.2K
- Potential profit
- $4.19K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$191.5
Polymarket Trader
troawa
0x0d95b039947554869d79f7a11a9171e1b38fd4be
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $472.56
- Realized PnL
- $1.6K
- Win rate
- 62.5%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $86.25
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.41K
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- -$119.83
Yes position
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $57.11
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $944.83
- Multiplier
- 17.54x
- User PnL
- -$58.14
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $76
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $724
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$84
Yes position
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $26.7
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $573.3
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- -$57.3
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $137
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $63
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $31
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $78.99
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $21
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $6
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $551.03
No position
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $466.2
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $287.2
No position
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $272.74
No position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $157.49
No position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $102.5
No position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $94
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.18
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $36
No position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $27
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $23.2
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.15
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.93
Yes position
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
No position
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.41
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 22?
Ends Jan 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5?
Ends Feb 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$18
No position
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$45.44
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$76.95
No position
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$107.14
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$125.3
No position
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$134
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Yes 0.4% 5 shares
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?No 37% 100 shares
- US forces enter Iran by December 31?No 38% 100 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?No 31% 100 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?No 41% 400 shares
- Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?No 99.9% 556.44 shares
- Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?No 43% 317.36 shares
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Yes 2.7% 749.98 shares
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Yes 2.8% 250 shares
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?No 49% 200 shares
- Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?No 55% 150.69 shares
- US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?No 2.2% 429.18 shares