No position
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $2.13K
- Potential payout
- $2.49K
- Potential profit
- $361.18
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $8.32
Polymarket Trader
Jonasssss
0x0e4e7db565ed1c78f87b94c364c8a703b8975bf4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.77K
- Realized PnL
- $2.01K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
EU dissolves before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Current value
- $1.74K
- Potential payout
- $1.8K
- Potential profit
- $58.5
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $27.29
No position
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $293.02
- Potential payout
- $350.92
- Potential profit
- $57.9
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $28.48
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.45
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $299.55
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$104.55
No position
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $299.55
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $0.45
- User PnL
- $35.55
No position
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $255
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $45
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $42
No position
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $206.64
- Potential payout
- $221
- Potential profit
- $14.37
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $7.73
No position
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $199.29
- Potential payout
- $203.46
- Potential profit
- $4.17
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.71
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $177
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $23
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $37
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.4%
- Current value
- $186.7
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $13.3
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $12.7
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $181
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $19
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $17
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Current value
- $188.7
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $11.3
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $22.7
No position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 85.8%
- Current value
- $109.94
- Potential payout
- $128.21
- Potential profit
- $18.27
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $9.94
No position
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $118.98
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $1.02
- User PnL
- $1.02
No position
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.7%
- Current value
- $106.37
- Potential payout
- $119.99
- Potential profit
- $13.62
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $4.38
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $102.07
- Potential payout
- $118
- Potential profit
- $15.93
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.59
No position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $97.75
- Potential payout
- $104.6
- Potential profit
- $6.85
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$2.25
No position
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $98.6
- Potential payout
- $103.52
- Potential profit
- $4.92
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- -$1.4
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$65
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $4.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $95.5
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$5.5
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $81.49
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $18.51
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $8.49
No position
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $98.45
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $1.55
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.45
Yes position
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.4%
- Current value
- $9.35
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $90.65
- Multiplier
- 10.70x
- User PnL
- $5.85
No position
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $80.5
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $19.5
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $16.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
Ends Feb 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $462.37
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $377
No position
French election called by October 10?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $136.29
No position
Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31?
Ends Sep 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.26
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.53
Yes position
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.46
Yes position
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.26
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.45
No position
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.64
No position
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54
Yes position
Will Trump say "Felon" during the debate?
Ends Jun 27, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.33
No position
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.7
No position
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.46
No position
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?
Ends Nov 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.56
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.1
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.7
No position
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.54
Yes position
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39
Yes position
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.96
No position
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.25
No position
US strike on Mexico by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.89
No position
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.87
Yes position
Biden drops out of presidential race?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.94
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No 86% 118 shares
- Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?Yes 25% 32.78 shares
- Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes 9.2% 900 shares
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes 10% 100 shares
- Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Yes 85.8% 200 shares
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes 47% 169.49 shares
- Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No 70% 357.14 shares
- Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No 87.3% 229.1 shares
- Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No 69.6% 718.76 shares
- Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?No 63% 793.65 shares
- Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?Yes 14% 100 shares
- US strike on Mexico by December 31?No 71% 71 shares