Polymarket Trader

Arden312

0x0f9154467d38d4065f74b18c6d433d4f1f46558c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.68K
Realized PnL: $735.34
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 3
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $1.31K
Potential payout: $1.32K
Potential profit: $9.25
User PnL: $68

No position

Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $220.78
Potential payout: $222.34
Potential profit: $1.56
User PnL: $1.18

Yes position

Will House of the Dragon Season 3 premiere by June 21?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 97%
Current value: $142.98
Potential payout: $147.41
Potential profit: $4.42
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $3.22

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.30% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $272.53

No position

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $136

No position

Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.5

No position

Will Quentin Tarantino be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.81

No position

30-year mortgage rate below 6% by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.32

No position

Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.34

Yes position

Will Google say "Alphabet" during earnings call?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.49

Yes position

Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.20% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.78

Yes position

Will Google say "Advertising" or "Advertisement" during earnings call?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.55

No position

Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.35

Yes position

Will Google say "YouTube" during earnings call?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.88

No position

New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.51

Yes position

Will Robinhood say "Gold" during earnings call?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.12

No position

Will Trump meet with Andy Jassy in March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.78

No position

Chris Christie charged in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.1

No position

New "The Boys" episode released by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.8

No position

Will Zohran Mamdani be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.73

No position

Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.48

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.27

No position

Vanta IPO in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.28

Yes position

Will Oracle say "Growth" during earnings call?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.83

No position

New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday?

Ends Jan 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.35

Yes position

Will S&P Global say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during earnings call?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.5

Yes position

Will Robinhood say "Prediction" during earnings call?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.04

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will House of the Dragon Season 3 premiere by June 21?

Yes 94.8% 94.1 shares
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?

No 99.1% 90 shares
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer?

No 8% 12.46 shares
Will House of the Dragon Season 3 premiere by June 21?

Yes 96.1% 1.67 shares
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer?

No 10% 10 shares
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer?

No 13.1% 7.9 shares
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer?

No 16% 6 shares
Will House of the Dragon Season 3 premiere by June 21?

Yes 94.7% 51.64 shares
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?

No 99% 50 shares
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer?

Yes 81% 5.26 shares
Will "Monster" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer?

Yes 79% 8.25 shares
Will Trump visit North Korea by June 30?

No 99.1% 11 shares