Yes position
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.7
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $199.3
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$4.3
Polymarket Trader
dessturmeswucht
0x10045e96df1e5011c32219e3c4b4faa937c658ec
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $41.71
- Realized PnL
- $255.11
- Win rate
- 79.2%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $105.26
- Potential profit
- $105.26
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $83.33
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $1.03
- Potential payout
- $51.55
- Potential profit
- $50.52
- Multiplier
- 50.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.97
Something position
Nothing Ever Happens: June
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.27
- Potential payout
- $31.25
- Potential profit
- $30.98
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$4.73
Yes position
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $7.92
- Potential payout
- $29.9
- Potential profit
- $21.97
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$12.08
Yes position
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.1
- Potential payout
- $16.13
- Potential profit
- $16.02
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$9.9
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.8%
- Current value
- $13.08
- Potential payout
- $14.58
- Potential profit
- $1.49
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $3.08
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $9.74
- Potential payout
- $10.42
- Potential profit
- $0.68
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $4.74
Y
Yes position
Will Austria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
Ends Jul 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.4%
- Current value
- $0.84
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.17
- Multiplier
- 11.98x
- User PnL
- -$4.17
N
No position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $5.23
- Potential payout
- $5.28
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.23
Y
Yes position
Did an engine failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17%
- Current value
- $0.47
- Potential payout
- $2.78
- Potential profit
- $2.31
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- -$1.53
No position
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Current value
- $1.29
- Potential payout
- $1.33
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.29
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.3%
- Current value
- $1.04
- Potential payout
- $1.1
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.04
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.06
Yes position
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.6
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20
Yes position
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.31
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.33
Nothing position
Nothing Ever Happens: May
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.85
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.29
Y
Yes position
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.78
No position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.06
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.87
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.71
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.89
Yes position
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.77
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.33
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.86
Yes position
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.64
Yes position
Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $2.35
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.81
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.62
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?Yes 2.3% 5.55 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 25, 2026?No 6% 83.33 shares
- Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q2 2026Yes 66.9% 29.9 shares
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?No 94.7% 5.28 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 91% 1.1 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 48% 10.42 shares
- Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Yes 62% 16.13 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026?No 9.5% 105.26 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No 98% 10.2 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Yes 9.7% 51.55 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No 68.6% 14.58 shares
- Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?Yes 18% 5.56 shares