No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $1.54K
- Potential payout
- $1.7K
- Potential profit
- $161.83
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $498.68
Polymarket Trader
AztecaBull
0x1062a069abb95899fd483aa42a3420fbdf00aea5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $8.77K
- Realized PnL
- $840.77
- Win rate
- 87.5%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $1.17K
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $80.99
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $166.44
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $925.75
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $86
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $242.33
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $888.8
- Potential payout
- $960.87
- Potential profit
- $72.07
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.81
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $333.3
- Potential payout
- $622.99
- Potential profit
- $289.69
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $33.3
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $594.9
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $5.1
- User PnL
- $72.9
N
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84%
- Current value
- $483.79
- Potential payout
- $575.94
- Potential profit
- $92.15
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $55.59
N
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $30.77
- Potential payout
- $473.42
- Potential profit
- $442.65
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$179.44
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $385.91
- Potential payout
- $389.02
- Potential profit
- $3.11
- User PnL
- $10.9
N
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $214.18
- Potential payout
- $385.91
- Potential profit
- $171.73
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $14.18
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $280.53
- Potential payout
- $348.48
- Potential profit
- $67.95
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $80.53
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $335.98
- Potential payout
- $341.27
- Potential profit
- $5.29
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $35.98
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $243.66
- Potential payout
- $281.69
- Potential profit
- $38.03
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $43.66
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.2%
- Current value
- $210.49
- Potential payout
- $221.1
- Potential profit
- $10.61
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $20.49
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $208.13
- Potential payout
- $208.34
- Potential profit
- $0.21
- User PnL
- $8.13
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Current value
- $177.65
- Potential payout
- $185.73
- Potential profit
- $8.08
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $7.25
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $184.4
- Potential payout
- $184.87
- Potential profit
- $0.46
- User PnL
- $53.15
No position
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $113.25
- Potential payout
- $120.48
- Potential profit
- $7.23
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $13.25
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $105.23
- Potential payout
- $116.28
- Potential profit
- $11.05
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $5.23
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $108.02
- Potential payout
- $109.89
- Potential profit
- $1.87
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $8.02
No position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $98.39
- Potential payout
- $107.53
- Potential profit
- $9.14
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$1.61
No position
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.9%
- Current value
- $93.86
- Potential payout
- $104.41
- Potential profit
- $10.55
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- -$6.14
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $29.4
- Potential payout
- $30.87
- Potential profit
- $1.47
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.65
No position
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.6%
- Current value
- $17.35
- Potential payout
- $18.54
- Potential profit
- $1.19
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.41
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $218.78
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $166.17
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.18
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- User PnL
- $99.01
No position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76.55
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.77
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.74
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.09
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.8
No position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71%
- Multiplier
- 1.41x
- User PnL
- $22
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20
No position
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.78
No position
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $16.02
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.99
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.29
No position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $7.26
No position
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.56
No position
Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $5.28
No position
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.76
No position
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$148.25
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 77% 68.83 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?No 92.5% 129.73 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99% 184.86 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 33.6% 89.26 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 33% 91.56 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 68.7% 145.63 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 51% 196.08 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 77% 129.87 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99% 369.72 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 77% 64.94 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 52.7% 189.83 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 35.4% 141.08 shares