Yes position
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 11%
- Current value
- $289.46
- Potential payout
- $2.64K
- Potential profit
- $2.35K
- Multiplier
- 9.13x
- User PnL
- $225.06
Polymarket Trader
0x10C9da9C478345CbE4419dAf21CB31b4920f1696-1773090166847
0x10c9da9c478345cbe4419daf21cb31b4920f1696
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $644.21
- Realized PnL
- $1.37K
- Win rate
- 95.8%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $209
- Potential payout
- $2.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.99K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$284.99
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $899.97
- Potential profit
- $899.97
- User PnL
- -$260.99
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $62.41
- Potential payout
- $499.25
- Potential profit
- $436.84
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$240.87
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $400
- User PnL
- -$280
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $83.34
- Potential payout
- $87.5
- Potential profit
- $4.16
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $29.62
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $392.98
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $235
No position
Ledger IPO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $115
No position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $106.2
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $104.5
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.5
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.6
No position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.02
Yes position
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.2%
- Multiplier
- 46.51x
- User PnL
- $35.42
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.41
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.72
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.5
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.5
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.4
No position
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.9
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16
No position
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 62.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- $12.34
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.15
No position
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12
No position
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $9
Yes position
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Multiplier
- 23.53x
- User PnL
- $2
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 6.7%
- Multiplier
- 15.04x
- User PnL
- -$0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 88.9% 100 shares
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 31.3% 50.22 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?No 82% 11.18 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?No 30% 50 shares
- Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes 2.6% 66.09 shares
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 22.9% 49.75 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No 69.9% 10 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No 69.9% 20 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No 69.9% 80 shares
- Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?No 70% 50 shares
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?No 80% 250 shares
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?No 72% 170 shares