Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Current value
- $12.46K
- Potential payout
- $169.51K
- Potential profit
- $157.05K
- Multiplier
- 13.61x
- User PnL
- -$3.2K
Polymarket Trader
abracadabr
0x10e420926d84ddbb9042a573323d6a745d98b019
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $41.27K
- Realized PnL
- $51.5K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.6%
- Current value
- $3.91K
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $16.09K
- Multiplier
- 5.12x
- User PnL
- -$6.09K
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $16.09K
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $3.91K
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $6.09K
Yes position
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $110
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $19.89K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$70
Yes position
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $375.25
- Potential payout
- $9.5K
- Potential profit
- $9.12K
- Multiplier
- 25.32x
- User PnL
- $27.26
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $7.09K
- Potential payout
- $7.11K
- Potential profit
- $17.77
- User PnL
- $430.6
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.8%
- Current value
- $587.5
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.41K
- Multiplier
- 8.51x
- User PnL
- $177.5
Yes position
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $324.94
- Potential payout
- $2.83K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- $70.94
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.4%
- Current value
- $127
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.87K
- Multiplier
- 15.75x
- User PnL
- $19
Yes position
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $125
- Potential payout
- $999.96
- Potential profit
- $874.97
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$59.99
Y
Yes position
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $70.15
- Potential payout
- $230
- Potential profit
- $159.85
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- $5.45
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.2K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.82K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.02K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.41K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.61K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.6K
Yes position
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.41K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.33K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.21K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.21K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5K
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.42K
Yes position
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.01K
Yes position
Will José Antonio Kast come in second in the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?
Ends Nov 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $729.87
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $619.08
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $610.88
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $562.54
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $533.58
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $386.82
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $350.01
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $303.78
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $251.72
No position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $201.22
Yes position
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $196.74
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 7% 453 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 7% 26.8 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 7% 756 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 7% 2,489 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 14% 3,999.99 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 14% 2,260 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 27% 68 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 29% 5 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 29% 5 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 29% 214 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 29% 514.42 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 15% 200 shares