Yes position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.1%
- Current value
- $18.2K
- Potential payout
- $23.02K
- Potential profit
- $4.82K
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $5.59K
Polymarket Trader
conotocaurius
0x1104d937f3635fc20f42d56c2855e72f0ec5002a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $25.12K
- Realized PnL
- $11.76K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $1.97K
- Potential payout
- $6.44K
- Potential profit
- $4.48K
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- $654.2
Yes position
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $1.65K
- Potential payout
- $2.04K
- Potential profit
- $387.77
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $36.52
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $514.48
- Potential payout
- $1.63K
- Potential profit
- $1.12K
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- -$7.34
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Current value
- $1.36K
- Potential payout
- $1.39K
- Potential profit
- $36.18
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $262.51
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $1.18K
- Potential payout
- $1.34K
- Potential profit
- $160.83
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $187.64
N
No position
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $177.3
- Potential payout
- $193.77
- Potential profit
- $16.47
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $78.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $21.5
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.27K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.46K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.39K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14K
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $814.75
Yes position
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $589.17
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $581.82
Yes position
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Multiplier
- 54.05x
- User PnL
- $431.67
No position
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $319.8
Yes position
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $296.58
No position
Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $180.69
Yes position
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.22
Yes position
Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $170.93
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138.74
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $130.95
Yes position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.47
No position
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.22
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84.94
India position
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.72
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.11
Yes position
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $53.26
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.25
Yes position
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- $48.76
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Starmer out by October 31, 2026?Yes 80.9% 1,032.99 shares
- Starmer out by October 31, 2026?Yes 75% 26.64 shares
- Starmer out by October 31, 2026?Yes 77.5% 981.24 shares
- Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 92% 90 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Yes 93% 657.13 shares
- Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 78.5% 51 shares
- Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 78.3% 1,167.8 shares
- Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 93% 103.76 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 32% 1,368.27 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Yes 97.2% 236.84 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Yes 92% 376.09 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?Yes 95% 236.84 shares